Who Is Electable? It's Anyone's Guess; Although election history points to likely victory for John Kerry, pundits say the race for the Democratic nomination could be decided in the south and west

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Feb 16, 2004

Byline: Jamie Dettmer, INSIGHT

First it was a come-from-behind victory in Iowa and then an impressive win in the Granite State for John Kerry, the Massachusetts senator who was being written off in the fall as a feckless also-ran. For Kerry the start of the primary season has been little short of an electoral miracle.

Now he has behind him a fair wind or what the senior George Bush liked to call the Big Mo and if history is a trustworthy guide Kerry is likely to emerge as the 2004 presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. Thirteen of the last 14 presidential nominees won the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, or both events.

History, though, can be a churlish taskmaster and Kerry faces some high hurdles, the biggest of which can be reduced to two words: the South. Can a New England liberal fare well south of the Mason-Dixon line, especially when two candidates in the field are native southerners?

In the immediate hours after Kerry's decisive win in New Hampshire, most pundits remained focused on the rivalry between the four-term Massachusetts senator and well-funded former Vermont governor Howard Dean. But Kerry's real challenger on Feb. 3, when seven states vote, including Oklahoma and South Carolina, more likely will be his senatorial colleague, John Edwards of North Carolina.

Kerry may boast the Big Mo but Edwards' second-place slot in Iowa and his near tie with Gen. Wesley Clark, who skipped Iowa to concentrate on New Hampshire, suggests that he may be the candidate with the Little Mo. Edwards says the Granite State result was "very encouraging" and he claims his positive campaign will "captivate" voters in his native South.

Not that Edwards has the monopoly on southern roots in this primary certainly Clark has been advertising his Arkansas background in those February states. The retired general faded badly in the Granite State as the campaigning increased in tempo, displaying foot-in-mouth habits and a tendency to lose it somewhat under pressure, a characteristic that has been noted by former colleagues and subordinates who served with him at NATO. These are handicaps that favor the cooler, methodical and slicker Edwards.

According to former Clinton adviser Dick Morris, there are big questions about whether Clark can handle the stress. "Without layers of staff to insulate him as all top generals have he may not be ready to deal with the intense questioning and media criticism he will have to face. He is already showing signs of the peevishness and petulance that are the hallmarks of a candidate in over his head," he wrote in FrontPage Magazine.com just before the polls opened in New Hampshire.

One other factor that may come into play to boost Edwards and allow him to come through the Feb. 3 primaries as Kerry's main rival is the nature of the upcoming fight between Kerry and Dean. In the Granite State the two poll leaders mixed it up and aides in both camps fear that their struggle could turn even more darkly negative in the south and west. Dean, whose fiery temperament did him considerable damage in Iowa, may be the loser, allowing the cheery "Mr. Clean" of the contest, Edwards, the opportunity to strengthen his appeal to voters tired of slanging matches.

Dean, though, shouldn't be dismissed at this stage. After his crushing defeat in Iowa, his second place in New Hampshire represents a success of sorts. As he emphasized, finishing second is better than coming in third as he did in Iowa. While he probably is wrong in claiming the New Hampshire vote has "allowed our campaign to regain its momentum," the result has kept his campaign alive. He remains well-funded and if he can pick up a couple of decent wins on Feb. 3, and secure victory in Michigan on Feb. 7, he may be in a position to turn the race around on Super Tuesday when the latte-liberal states of New York and California vote.

Kerry may have the Big Mo but Dean has one advantage in the weeks leading up to Super Tuesday: He now has the opportunity to concentrate his attention and resources on a few states rather than trying to contest them all Arizona and delegate-rich Missouri should be his primary targets. As the front-runner Kerry is obliged almost to compete in as many states as possible in a bid to maintain momentum and to swamp Dean ahead of Super Tuesday so that the Vermont Democrat can't mount a comeback in New York and California.

A Dean revival, though, will require the Vermont Democrat to recast his campaign his anti-war message worked well in early 2003 but it isn't giving him traction now. With war and the terrorism threat dropping down the list of the voters' primary concerns, Dean's bid has faltered. In New Hampshire exit polls health care, the economy and jobs trumped the war in Iraq and terrorism.

Kerry emphasized health care and jobs in his campaigning and like Edwards has talked about an "economy of privilege." He has lambasted "crony capitalism" a potent theme in the wake of Enron and Wall Street scandals. Dean too often has seemed to be a Johnny-one-note, though in the Granite State he sought to widen his message. His trouble is that it may be too late for him to tug health care and the economy away from Kerry and Edwards, the only candidate to have released a detailed budget and economic plan.