Iowa's People Lead the Nation

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Sept 6, 1999 | by Aimee Howd

If ever a front-running candidate decides not to contest the event, the mythical bubble of its significance could be burst for good, experts warn. Texas Gov. George W. Bush "really kind of saved" the straw polls this year by treating them with respect, says Racheter.

The straw polls are the first test of the candidates' ability to mobilize supporters. Weak candidates who fare poorly at the event generally are winnowed out of the running as support dries up, and the field is narrowed for the caucuses.

Iowa's caucuses became the premier test of a candidate's early strength in 1968 when controversies surrounding Vietnam prompted Iowa Democrats to pass a series of rules requiring advance notice for party meetings and sensitive platform debates. To hold their state convention in June and allow the required lag time, they scheduled their caucuses for January. Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern's young campaign manager, Gary Hart, had a hunch that finishing well in the Iowa caucus would win his man some much-needed publicity leading up to the New Hampshire primaries. Sure enough, with good organization they pulled off a surprise close-second finish, and the political press gave them the attention they hoped for. In subsequent campaigns other candidates expanded on the strategy and, in 1976, Republicans agreed to synchronize their caucuses with the Democrats.

State officials from both parties have fought to hold onto Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status as other states have moved up their own dates. But any caucus is at best a weak measure of a candidate's strength. Six months from now an estimated one-third of Iowans will gather in roughly 2,500 precincts to elect delegates to county party conventions who will elect delegates to state conventions and who, in turn, will elect delegates to the national conventions held in July or August.

The candidate whom delegates are nominated to support may not even be in the running by the time the national conventions roll around, and it's anyone's guess where their support will go.

As Insight went to press, a poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees, released Aug. 11 by the Alexandria, Va., research firm PSI (www.iowa2000.com), showed Bush maintaining a commanding lead at 34 percent. Steve Forbes, a distant eighth place in their March survey, moved into a comfortable second-place slot at 13.3 percent with an increase in supporters across all demographic groups, apparently stealing support from Elizabeth Dole, whose support fell from 16.4 percent in March to just 8.7 percent in this survey. All other candidates limped along at 4 percent or less.

"The media base their figures on the number of delegates who declare loyalty to a given candidate. And the candidates tout it if they're first and try to downplay it if they're in the bottom," says Racheter. "As long as there's the history that no one manages to go on and win the presidency without finishing in the top three in Iowa and the top two in New Hampshire, the myth is maintained.