Pakistan Plans Early Transfer to Civilian Rule

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Oct 2, 2000 | by Jamie Dettmer

A flurry of military promotions and transfers in Pakistan during the first week of September -- the first reshuffle of the army's top brass since Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power last October -- has prompted little international attention, partly as a result of ho-hum noises coming from Islamabad. Military spokesmen there say the reshuffle, including the transfer of the fundamentalist-inclined chief of staff to a field command in Lahore, merely is routine.

But sources close to Pakistan's military regime say the reshuffle marks the beginning of a cautious three- to six-month process that well could see Musharraf ending formal military rule over the troubled country, a move that Islamabad hopes will please international investors and lead to a resumption of Western aid and loans.

The well-placed sources say the general is aware that if he is to observe a Supreme Court order to hold elections in two years' time, he needs to start shifting the country now over to civilian rule. Musharraf is considering either restoring the National Assembly he suspended when he ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharaf 11 months ago or introducing a caretaker coalition government. The latter is more likely.

Although hesitant about calling back the country's fractious politicians -- Musharraf blames them for the host of grave economic and political problems besetting Pakistan -- the general appears ready to accept that his efforts to revive the country's moribund economy are failing. The politician most likely to benefit from the ending of military rule is Ijaz Ul-Haq, the son of Pakistan's last military strongman, the late Gen. Zia Ul-Haq. Musharraf has earmarked Ijaz as Pakistan's next prime minister.

The timing certainly is opportune. Last month in New York in the margins of the U.N. Millennium Summit, U.S. diplomats urged Musharraf to bring about a restoration of democracy. They hope a return to civilian rule will ease tensions on the subcontinent and help coax Pakistan and India to sit down and resolve their differences concerning Kashmir.

According to the plan being discussed in clandestine talks with party leaders, neither the jailed Sharaf nor his predecessor Benazir Bhutto, now in self-exile in London, will be allowed to run for office. Further, Musharraf is likely to install himself as president. That would allow him to ensure that his economic-reform efforts are pursued and that the anticorruption drive he initiated continues.

In early September, Ijaz traveled to Washington to brief the State Department on the possible developments. The Bush campaign also has been kept informed.

Ijaz, who is a member of Sharaf's Muslim League party, is responsible partly for Musharraf's readiness to consider transferring power from the military to the civilians, say political sources in Pakistan. On July 25, the general met with Ijaz in Islamabad. The meeting came after Ijaz's name topped a series of opinion polls secretly conducted by the generals in their search for a politician with the most popular backing.