Campaign Trail Leads to Talk TV

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Oct 16, 2000 | by Jennifer G. Hickey

Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore made the rounds of the TV talk shows to try to close the perceived gaps in their voter bases. It was a week of gaffes and volatility.

Democrats and their media allies have for weeks been reenacting that plague-year scene from Monty Pythons Holy Grail in which men with a wheelbarrow tour the village calling, "Bring out your dead:" But the Democrats and spinmeisters who have tried to cart away the body of George W. Bush have found him very lively indeed. If they want to put something on ice they would be well-advised to make it their White House redecorating plans. As the candidates trade places in the polls from day to day, those who keep pronouncing the race over are beginning to look like they are guilty of more than bad prognostication.

With the press taking a pratfall on its sloppy coverage of the Democratic ticket since Al Gore planted that stage smooch on his wife at the Democratic National Convention, Gore had kept his feet by shucking and ducking, reverting to a strategy that has worked for him in the past. By safely sheltering Gore in the bosom of the vice presidency -- and, more importantly, away from unscripted press events in which he tends to tell tall tales -- the campaign had been able to remain "on message" Then, with the Oct. 3 kickoff of the presidential debates looming, Austin sent out word it was "retooling" so that Bush and his running mate, former defense secretary Dick Cheney, could drive the news instead of being run over by the press express.

With voter.com's Battleground 2000 tracking poll and Zogby showing Bush up (and within the margin of error), the governor went back on the offensive and made a knockout TV appearance on the popular Oprah Winfrey Show.

Most analysts characterized the interview as an effort to tighten the gender gap -- or what might be better termed the NOW (National Organization for Women) gap. On the surface, Bush does fare worse among women voters than Gore, but not among married or middle-aged women. As Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told Fox News recently, "The marriage gap is even more dramatic than the gender gap." The Texan scores best with women between the ages of 25 and 64, while Gore does better among debs and seniors.

Interestingly, there is no mention of Gore's strategy to lessen the "wuss gap" the disparity in support between Bush and Gore among men. No one is asking what there is about Gore that so many women see as feminine and so many men spot as unmanly.

For the Democratic ticket, women and blacks are seen as the more loyal voting bloc, but there are areas of opportunity for the GOP among both. A recent internal Democratic poll showed the vice president with a substantial numerical lead among blacks. But the survey also indicated almost one-third of that support was considered soft. This lack of enthusiasm for Gore could prove helpful for Bush if the Texas governor can affirmatively pitch his Social Security plan during the debates. Through the simple expediency of noting that the majority of African-American men do not live to the retirement age of 65, Bush can make clear that the Gore-Lieberman opposition to voluntary investment accounts is trying to balance the Social Security budget on the backs of hard working black men and deprive them and their heirs of the benefits of a flourishing stock market.

Considering there are gaps in both candidates' voter base, the Oprah appearance was a good idea at the right time. The one-hour interview introduced Winfrey's 7 million viewers to a spontaneous, decent and self-deprecatingly witty candidate who was impossible not to like.

Later in the week, the governor also "dropped" by Regis Philbin's popular TV program decked out in a monochromatic suit from the host's own line of clothing, a style Gore has not yet affected. The more relaxed setting offered another chance to discuss Bush's tax-relief and education proposals as well as to speak about Gore's inability to deal with a looming crisis in heating oil.

As Clinton continued to dawdle, Gore returned to Pecksniffian attacks on "big oil" which his own Energy Department has said was not responsible for the high fuel prices. By week's end, the vice president finally had addressed the issue, calling on the president to dump fuel on the market from the strategic petroleum reserves. Perhaps he was too busy raising money in California from an entertainment industry he was last week decrying as the great despoiler of American youth to realize Treasury Secretary Larry Summers had sent a letter to the White House warning oil dumping "would be a major and substantial policy mistake." A Gore man, Summers would shortly fall back into line with the vice president's political need.

Even more harmful, as a Sept. 18 Detroit News editorial noted, would be Gore's promise to enact the Kyoto Protocol, which "most economists agree couldn't be done without imposing some kind of carbon tax" that might double or triple key energy costs. Are home heating costs an issue likely to harm the Gore/Lieberman team? Ask British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has been facing gas lines, protesters and plummeting approval ratings. The energy-related political situation in Europe, as well as the energy-related turnaround of the campaign of Sen. Spencer Abraham, R-Mich., point to an opening for Austin.