Beware risks to a democratic future: despite the new incendiary anti-U.S. leaders in South America, much of the Bush administration is fiddling as the future of hemispheric security begins to smolder

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Jan 21, 2003 | by J. Michael Waller

Much of South America is spiraling into a political and economic morass that invites not only further demographic dislocation but an unprecedented haven for terrorism and political extremism. Yet in the Bush administration, only the Department of Defense (DoD) seems to be presenting a plan to salvage a democratic future for the region, even as the State Department and the National Security Council (NSC) offer only what one observer calls "bureaucratic bromides." U.S. inattention to its neighbors is reaping a bitter harvest:

* Colombia, under a new, pro-U.S. president committed to smashing his country's two Marxist-Leninist narcoterrorist groups and eradicating cocaine and heroin production there, nonetheless is surrounded by Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela--each of which has elected charismatic, anti-U.S. demagogues as rulers.

* Brazil's new president, inaugurated Jan. 1, is a hard-core professional radical who built his career by portraying the United States as the enemy. Luis Inacio "Lula" da Silva took power with a documented history of supporting the hemisphere's revolutionary and terrorist groups. He also stated his support for resuming Brazil's mothballed nuclear-weapons program and using the country's high-tech industry to revive the economy and its diplomatic prestige by building and proliferating advanced nuclear weapons.

* Ecuador elected a leftist, one-time coup leader, Col. Lucio Gutierrez, in November, raising doubts about the stability of its relationship with the United States. Ecuador is a significant oil producer and has been a key ally with the United States and Colombia against narcoterrorism. This may now be at risk.

* Venezuela, a major oil supplier to the United States, risks being torn apart by President Hugo Chavez, a coup-plotter turned dictator who views himself as a leader in a radical entente. He sympathizes with Cuba's Fidel Castro and Iraq's Saddam Hussein, and stands accused of aiding Colombian narcoguerrillas and Islamist terrorists (see "Chavez Plans for Terrorist Regime" Jan. 7-20).

* Islamist terrorists continue to build a presence on the continent, especially in the tri-border region of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil.

The response of the NSC, the State Department and even the GOP-led Congress: ho-hum.

The Bush administration gave not the slightest hint of concern when Brazil's da Silva paid a preinauguration visit to Washington. The Western Hemisphere affairs director at the NSC, John Maisto, is derided by conservatives as a foreign-service careerist with a history of kowtowing to communists and other tyrants. As deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Managua, Nicaragua, administration sources tell INSIGHT, he apologized to the Sandinistas for President Ronald Reagan's successful policies that ousted them. As former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, Maisto assured all who would listen that the newly elected Chavez wasn't the threat his critics made him out to be. Early in 2002, administration sources say, Maisto blocked a DoD initiative to promote democracy and security in the hemisphere, preventing a painstakingly developed strategic plan from reaching the president.

Nearly a full year has gone by with the United States adrift and the South American situation worsening. The NSC has issued controversial statements, apparently with little consultation with the State Department or Pentagon. In one case it crafted a White House statement on Venezuela that called for early elections when there is no legal process for early elections in that country and not even the opposition was calling for them.

The DoD, however, has been engaged actively and with a clear strategic vision for the hemisphere, administration officials say. Pentagon officials leading the war on terrorism have voiced concern at the unraveling of the hemispheric security relationship built around the half-century-old Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, or Rio Treaty, which the Mexican government of President Vicente Fox has been working openly to destroy.

Why sabotage it? In its 55-year existence, the Rio Treaty was invoked only once: after Sept. 11, 2001, when its signatories unanimously agreed to join the United States in the war on terrorism.

In November, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld unveiled an initiative to "foster security and draw Western Hemisphere nations closer together." Visiting Santiago, Chile, for the Defense Ministerial of the Americas meeting, Rumsfeld urged Latin American countries to consider ways to expand national capabilities into regional ones, particularly strengthening operational and planning capabilities, command and control, and information sharing, plus a strong maritime-cooperation agreement to help fight the organized criminal-terrorist nexus. Rumsfeld also said, "We should explore the possibility of integrating these various specialized capabilities into larger regional capabilities so that we can participate as a region in peacekeeping and stability operations"

Rumsfeld made the 5,000-mile trip before attending a NATO meeting in Prague, indicating the importance he places on hemispheric security: "Needless to say, I would not be going all this distance if I did not think this was extremely important" he said. Next May, the Organization of American States, one of the world's oldest international organizations, will meet to consider post-Cold War security arrangements.