Call It Political Sumo Wrestling

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Nov 9, 1998 | by Jamie Dettmer

Perpetual spinmeisters, Clinton apologists have used budget disagreements on education, health care and Social Security artfully to deflect attention from the impeachment inquiry.

Aficionados of sumo wrestling claim it is possible to predict pretty accurately the result of a bout even before the collision of bulk and flesh takes place. The competitors' strutting and posturing, their grunting at each other and allied eye-of-the-tiger stuff determines who'll be the victor and the vanquished. It is in those minutes of intimidation leading up to the quicksilver fight that a wrestler is convinced he'll win or lose, and the result almost invariably -- barring the accidental -- is in keeping with the confidence levels expressed in the features of the baby-faced rivals.

On Capitol Hill, Republicans and Democrats have been in the pre-fight grunting stage, trying to psych out the other side ahead of the double bout -- the midterm elections and the Clinton impeachment inquiry. But which side will be more confident when the time comes for the actual clinch is hard to say.

Back in mid-August when the president offered the nation a confused and disastrously self-serving Monica Lewinsky mea culpa, and then again a month later when Independent Counsel Kenneth W. Starr's 445-page impeachment report dropped, it was the GOP that thought it could toss the Democrats out of the ring with the flick of a wrist. And for Bill Clinton, well, ciao! The dismay written on the faces of White House aides said it all.

As leaf-turning fall arrived in the nation's capital, the Republicans' faith in rout of the Democrats waned: The opinion polls, with their consistently high Clinton job-approval ratings, began to eat into GOP certainty and triggered the self-doubt the party has felt for years when going mano a mano with the Arkansas Houdini.

Not that Republicans think they will have a bad election. Despite signs that the Democratic base vote won't be as depressed as some pollsters initially thought, the GOP still is heading for gains: possibly half a dozen to 10 new House seats and a handful -- three or four -- pickups in the Senate. And in gubernatorial and state-legislature races the Republicans should do well, although retaining the glittering prize of California remains a tossup.

But the expectations were much higher in heady August and September, and so a pullback from a dreamed-of Democratic wipeout has prompted more caution and an erosion of triumphalism -- probably no bad thing for the Republicans, who were in grave jeopardy of overplaying their Lewinsky advantages and allowing a backlash against them to build unstoppable momentum.

For the Democrats, the dawning realization they are not going to suffer the kind of party-destroying defeat inflicted on British Conservatives last year had the effect of reinvigorating their lawmakers and activists, sparking hopes that the president's troubles can be navigated to a conclusion short of impeachment. "For this relief, much thanks," would appear to be the Democratic sentiment. It is enough for them.

And with an increasing level of assurance, the Democrats have learned to grunt harder and a little more threateningly, though House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri overdid it on Oct. 13 when he said he was "confident" the Democrats would peel back the GOP gains of 1994 and retake the House.

Grunter-in-chief Clinton is more subtle and has been engaging in an outflanking maneuver of the GOP. In hindsight it well may be seen as the crucial play in this campaign season, one that saved the president's party from electoral Nemesis.

The presidential threat of a budget standoff in a bid to entice Republicans into a repeat of the disastrous-for-them 1995 government shutdown has been accomplishing all the objectives the White House must have prayed for, including reenergizing forlorn Democratic loyalists out in the country, provoking GOP fear and providing the president's party with a clutch of issues -- education, health care and Social Security -- that play to Democratic strengths and could encourage soccer moms to turn out.

What a difference a week can make. The parties have switched positions. Democrat lawmakers initially wanted appropriations signed and sealed quickly, allowing them out of Washington and on to the campaign trail. And Republicans were the ones happy to drag out the budgetary process and keep the nation's focus firmly centered on a scandal-dominated capital. Suddenly it was the other way around.

White House spin partly was responsible for the reversal. By presenting appropriation disagreements as partisan struggles about education, managed health care and Social Security, Clinton stole a march on his opponents. And Democrats, such as Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening, who a few weeks ago didn't want the president within a hundred miles of him, began trotting happily by the side of the Comeback Kid. Aided by a $28 million issue-ad campaign from the AFL-CIO, the Democratic hue and cry has increased the impact of White House spin. Vice President Al Gore is said by Democrats to have been particularly effective in stumping the country.