Kyoto Treaty Looks Good on Paper, but Is It Bad for America's Health?

Critics of the so-called Kyoto Treaty argue that it will do little to combat global warming, even if this debatable theory proves valid. The treaty's supporters argue that a rollback in carbon dioxide, or [CO.sup.2], output will prevent Earth from stewing in a sauna of greenhouse gases. Global-warming skeptics respond that Kyoto will restrain emissions among industrialized nations, while allowing Third World and developing countries to churn out [CO.sup.2] as never before. This is as smart as opening the windows, then blasting the air conditioner on a summer afternoon.

But could the Kyoto Treaty be worse than futile? Could it actually do damage?

In a study for the free-market Competitive Enterprise Institute, University of Texas professor Frank Cross predicts that Kyoto will prove lethal. While it will not make hundreds of people drop dead at once, its unintended consequences could cause thousands of unnecessary deaths annually due to decreased public health and safety. In short, the Kyoto Treaty threatens to kill us softly.

One key problem is costlier power due to the treaty's tight restrictions. An October Energy Department report shows the impact of cutting [CO.sup.2] emissions 20 percent below current levels and 35 - 43 percent below where they are projected to be in 2010 without Kyoto. Fuel-oil prices will rise 76 percent. The Kyoto premium on electricity will be 86.4 percent, with a 147 percent hike in natural-gas costs.

Higher fuel bills will price air conditioning out of the reach of poorer consumers. While this might merely annoy younger people, the elderly routinely dehydrate each summer inside their blistering homes. In a 1995 Chicago heat wave, for instance, 339 seniors perished from heat exhaustion. The Kyoto Treaty could make such tragedies more common.

In the winter, pricier fuel oil and natural gas will prompt some consumers to use substitutes unregulated by Kyoto, such as firewood. As lovely as a fireplace's glow may be, it also poses health risks. The American Review of Respiratory Disease reports that home use of a wood-burning stove increased the probability of a child having a severe respiratory symptom from 3 to 84 percent.

Year-round, homes can be made more energy-efficient by decreasing ventilation rates. While insulation and tight-fitting doors help cool homes in summer and warm them in winter, they also trap carbon monoxide, petroleum vapors and other toxins. One EPA report blames Energy Department weatherization initiatives for 10,000 to 20,000 additional lung-cancer deaths due to radon that stayed inside energy-efficient homes.

Kyoto compliance likely will involve requiring automakers to increase their cars' fuel efficiency. How? By building smaller, lighter vehicles. The Sierra Club calls this "the biggest step to curbing global warming." But what if your car crashes? Despite air bags and tougher, lighter materials, collisions in smaller cars usually mean trouble. In 1991, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration concluded that the federally mandated drop in vehicle weights -- from about 3,700 to 2,700 pounds in the 1970s -- boosted highway fatalities by 2,000 annually and serious injuries by 20,000. Similarly, mandating average fuel-economy standards from 27.5 miles per gallon today to 40 mpg under Kyoto could cause an additional 1,650 traffic deaths and 8,000 more serious injuries each year.

Finally, research suggests the Kyoto Treaty could stymie growth and employment. Global-warming red tape and energy taxes will decelerate U.S. output. A June 1997 EPA/Energy Department joint study estimates that Kyoto could cost 900,000 jobs by 2005. As these workers' incomes plunge, Americans will learn that whatever is invested in treaty compliance cannot be use a elsewhere. Every dollar spent to satisfy the Kyoto Kops is a dollar that cannot be spent on checkups, mammograms, smoke detectors or even better food, all of which can improve well-being and life expectancy.

The prestigious WEFA economic forecasting group, founded at the Wharton Business School, calculates that in 2010 the Kyoto Treaty could cost the U.S. economy $343 billion in curbed growth and productivity. It assumes that each $10 million in reduced national wealth costs one life clue to poorer health care, nutrition and reduced safety. This translates into an annual increase of 34,300 premature deaths.

President Clinton and Vice President Gore seem determined to make the United States abide by the Kyoto Treaty, despite these high costs and the Senate's apparent unwillingness to ratify it. Indeed, the administration appears to be implementing aspects of the accord via executive order and bureaucratic fiat at the EPA and other federal agencies. This must stop. It's bad enough to be governed by a useless agreement that doesn't solve a dubious problem. It's quite another to expect citizens to obey a treaty that could cost American lives.

New York commentator Deroy Murdock is an MSNBC columnist and a senior fellow with the Atlas Economic Research Foundation in Fairfax, Va.

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