President's problems are getting bigger

0 Comments | Insight on the News, April 15, 1996 | by Susan Crabtree

Focused surveys reveal that Clinton's White House tenure may be in political jeopardy.

After President Clinton's State of the Union address, White House staff members breathed easy, gleefully watching the Republican gladiators clash over the "heart and soul" of their party. But after Bob Dole's third consecutive primary sweep, the Clinton camp no longer could. sit comfortably on the sidelines. Despite the president's significant lead over the Senate majority leader in many polls, analysts believe Clinton's hold on the presidency is precarious and predict an arduous campaign with pitfalls at every turn.

The rash of negative advertising of the GOP primary and Patrick Buchanan's populist bombast emphasized fissures in the Republican Party, leaving the unrivaled Clinton appearing serenely confident. The polls of the last two months reflected this. For instance, a March 15 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed potential voters supporting Clinton 54 percent to Dole's 42 percent.

Few politicos believe those figures will hold up through Labor Day, and a host of unpredictables could jettison the president's reelection chances. "These recent polls look eerily like the George Bush numbers at the same time in the '92 race," says pollster Ed Goeas, who predicts a tight race.

Focused surveys expose Clinton's underlying vulnerability. In a Battleground '96 conducted by Goeas, a Republican, and Celinda Lake, a Democrat, only 41 percent of those polled believed the president deserves reelection and only 18 percent said the country is better off now than it was four years ago. A Feb. 22-29 Hanis poll found that Clinton's negative rating has continued to rise -- to 53 percent from 48 percent in November.

Republicans are prepared to strike at what they regard as the president's Achilles' heel: his character. "Part of Dole's success will depend on his ability to drive home the character issue in the campaign," says Floyd Brown, president of the conservative Citizens United. Along the campaign trail, Dole has concentrated his attacks on the president's lack of "moral fiber," and the Republican National Committee will help deliver that message with a bankroll of $60 million and a treasure trove of negative ads blasting the president for incessant flip-flops on issues such as the promised balanced budget, welfare reform and middle-class tax cuts.

The simmering Whitewater issue also could flare. After months of hammering by GOP Sen. Alfonse D'Amato of New York, the mainstream media again are reporting the smell of fear within the White House and have jumped on the issue during the last three weeks. The March 18 cover story of Time magazine, "The Truth About Whitewater," was an excerpt from Pulitzer Prize-winning author James B. Stewart's new book Blood Sport: The President and His Adversaries, an account of some of the Clintons' duplicitous Arkansas business deals.

With the Senate Whitewater investigation up for extension, Democrats leaped to the president's defense. "I don't think there will be any new revelations Whitewater, and I don't think people really care," says Matt Reese, a longtime Democratic consultant. "I think the Republicans are soon to be revealed as opportunistic in their attacks and that people are going to say 'horsefeathers, this is all politics.'"

Although few are predicting an indictment of the president or the first lady, Whitewater prosecutor Kenneth W Starr is closing in on many of the Clinton associates and underlings for obstruction of justice. The American people are responding to the scrutiny, according to Goeas. "Clinton should be concerned that we've seen the first lady's numbers become negative," he explains. "That is the first sign that eventually the president's approval ratings will be affected as well."

For now, Clinton has dodged the bullet and appears safe from direct prosecution in Whitewater, but he cannot avoid the intensity of a possible foreign-policy disaster. In recent weeks, the president seems to have had a reverse Midas touch in international matters as most of his critical foreign strategies have gone awry One after the other, crises have erupted in China, Cuba, Israel and Ireland -- all trouble spots in which Clinton claimed to have been the author of diplomatic success.

As the president took credit for the peace and readied himself for the political dividends on St. Patrick's Day, the Irish Republican Army renewed its terror bombings in Britain and put out a contract on the queen.

China's aggressive war games off the coast of Taiwan have escalated tensions between the United States and the Asian giant, dashing Clinton's claims that improved relations would result from ignoring human-rights abuses and continuing favorable trade policies. "If, God forbid, war breaks out in China, then it [foreign policy] becomes a serious problem for him," says Mark Mellman, a consultant to the Democratic National Committee.

Clinton's deployment of troops to Bosnia also is a potential source 6f trouble. If the area again becomes a killing ground, that situation could cost him the election. "Bosnia could blow up in the president's face if body bags come streaming homel" Brown says, noting the second Bosnia casualty, which occurred March 22.