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Majority rules: with 35 seats up for grabs in the U.S. Senate this November, is an ironclad Democratic majority of 60 in sight?
Advocate, The, March 25, 2008 by Andrew Noyes
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THE PARLIAMENTARY OBSTRUCTION commonly known as a "filibuster" has been a defining characteristic of the U.S. Senate throughout history, but Republicans in the Democratic-led 110th Congress have used the tactic with record-breaking frequency in order to derail legislation they don't agree with.
The GOP has threatened to filibuster, and effectively torpedo, a number of bills that are important to lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people--in addition to a host of other Democratic proposals like creating an exit strategy for the war in Iraq and addressing crucial environmental and labor issues.
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So far, in a little more than a year in the 110th Congress, there have been 68 votes to end filibusters. By comparison, the Republican-controlled 109th Congress racked up just 54 such votes in a full two years, and the 108th Congress saw only 49.
Democrats hold a paper-thin majority with 51 seats because the 100-member chamber's two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, tend to vote in concert with the Democratic leadership. But the more seats Democrats win in the 2008 election, the fewer filibusters they will face.
"You have to have 60 votes to pass anything, and with only 51, it's not hard for Republicans to block whatever they want to," says Matthew Miller, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Referring to the 60 votes needed to end a filibuster. "The more votes you have, the closer you are to 60 and the fewer Republicans it takes
to move the ball forward," he says. Right now the Senate's GOP leadership "just doesn't have to compromise."
Human Rights Campaign legislative director Allison Herwitt says a handful of Democratic Senate wins could have a huge impact on advancing legislation that benefits LGBT people. Her group has had to fight for a "voting majority" on just about every issue on its agenda-a strategy that involves wooing moderate Republicans to cross party lines.
A larger pool of "pro-equality" senators would help ensure Senate passage of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, legislation providing domestic -partner benefits to federal civilian employees, and a proposal aimed at tax equity for people receiving benefits through a partner's health plan.
Jennifer Dully, senior editor of The Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan newsletter that handicaps elections, says she is confident that Democrats will achieve a "working majority" of 57 or 58 seats but that becoming "filibuster-proof" will be much more difficult. To do that, the party would need to pick up nine seats, and a net gain of six is at the high end of her prediction for this campaign cycle. Still, a flurry of Democratic wins could push the pendulum substantially to the left and revive the progressive agenda on Capitol Hill.
RELATED ARTICLE: Sizing up Senate hot seats.
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COLORADO
After serving two terms, Republican senator Wayne Allard--the architect of a 2006 proposal to amend the Constitution to ban same-sex marriage-is making good on his campaign promise to retire. Vying to fill his seat are Democratic congressman Mark Udall and former congressman Bob Schaffer, an ultraconservative Republican. "Udall is off to a good start with an enormous cash-on-hand advantage and is viewed as the favorite in that race," says Matthew Miller of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Udall scored 100% on the Human Rights Campaign's scorecard of the 109th Congress by opposing the marriage amendment and supporting hate-crimes legislation. Recent polls show Udall narrowly leading Schaffer, who unsuccessfully ran for the state's other Senate spot in 2004. The Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy says the election will be decided largely by suburban voters and the GOP will try hard to portray Udall, who has worked to moderate his record, as "a typical Boulder liberal." "I think it's a better race than people have predicted," she says.
LOUISIANA
Two-term Democratic senator Mary Landrieu, who has earned high marks from HRC, could face another battle in the Bayou this year after narrowly winning her seat in 1996 and 2002. Since that time, Hurricane Katrina displaced a number of her loyal voters, and the state was the only one in the country that trended Republican in the 2006 midterm election. "She'll have to run in a changed, less friendly environment than she's ever run in before," Duffy explains. State treasurer John Kennedy, who switched parties to become her GOP rival, is not the "B-team candidate" that Landrieu has barely beaten in previous races, Duffy says. But the Miller points out that Landrieu's popularity is high, she has raised a lot of money early in the race, and her brother Mitch was recently reelected as lieutenant governor.
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MAINE
Centrist Republican senator Susan Collins, who has routinely achieved a favorable rating from HRC (78% in the 109th Congress), could face a tough fight against popular Democratic congressman Tom Allen. Collins, who voted for the Iraq war, has sided with liberals on many key social issues. Research by Portland, Maine, polling firm Critical Insights showed Collins as a strong early favorite, leading Allen statewide 54% to 34%, with strong support independent vote. To lessen the gap, Duffy says Allen "has to redefine her in the eyes of voters, and then he has to define himself" to those outside of his district. Collins has "a history of talking like a moderate and then coming to D.C. and not voting like one," Miller says, and Allen needs to take that message to voters. "if someone is going to beat Susan Collins, it's Tom Allen and it's in 2008," adds Equality Maine executive director Betsy Smith.
