Majority rules: with 35 seats up for grabs in the U.S. Senate this November, is an ironclad Democratic majority of 60 in sight?

Andrew Noyes

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THE PARLIAMENTARY OBSTRUCTION commonly known as a "filibuster" has been a defining characteristic of the U.S. Senate throughout history, but Republicans in the Democratic-led 110th Congress have used the tactic with record-breaking frequency in order to derail legislation they don't agree with.

The GOP has threatened to filibuster, and effectively torpedo, a number of bills that are important to lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people--in addition to a host of other Democratic proposals like creating an exit strategy for the war in Iraq and addressing crucial environmental and labor issues.

So far, in a little more than a year in the 110th Congress, there have been 68 votes to end filibusters. By comparison, the Republican-controlled 109th Congress racked up just 54 such votes in a full two years, and the 108th Congress saw only 49.

Democrats hold a paper-thin majority with 51 seats because the 100-member chamber's two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, tend to vote in concert with the Democratic leadership. But the more seats Democrats win in the 2008 election, the fewer filibusters they will face.

"You have to have 60 votes to pass anything, and with only 51, it's not hard for Republicans to block whatever they want to," says Matthew Miller, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Referring to the 60 votes needed to end a filibuster. "The more votes you have, the closer you are to 60 and the fewer Republicans it takes

to move the ball forward," he says. Right now the Senate's GOP leadership "just doesn't have to compromise."

Human Rights Campaign legislative director Allison Herwitt says a handful of Democratic Senate wins could have a huge impact on advancing legislation that benefits LGBT people. Her group has had to fight for a "voting majority" on just about every issue on its agenda-a strategy that involves wooing moderate Republicans to cross party lines.

A larger pool of "pro-equality" senators would help ensure Senate passage of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, legislation providing domestic -partner benefits to federal civilian employees, and a proposal aimed at tax equity for people receiving benefits through a partner's health plan.

Jennifer Dully, senior editor of The Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan newsletter that handicaps elections, says she is confident that Democrats will achieve a "working majority" of 57 or 58 seats but that becoming "filibuster-proof" will be much more difficult. To do that, the party would need to pick up nine seats, and a net gain of six is at the high end of her prediction for this campaign cycle. Still, a flurry of Democratic wins could push the pendulum substantially to the left and revive the progressive agenda on Capitol Hill.

RELATED ARTICLE: Sizing up Senate hot seats.

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COLORADO

After serving two terms, Republican senator Wayne Allard--the architect of a 2006 proposal to amend the Constitution to ban same-sex marriage-is making good on his campaign promise to retire. Vying to fill his seat are Democratic congressman Mark Udall and former congressman Bob Schaffer, an ultraconservative Republican. "Udall is off to a good start with an enormous cash-on-hand advantage and is viewed as the favorite in that race," says Matthew Miller of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Udall scored 100% on the Human Rights Campaign's scorecard of the 109th Congress by opposing the marriage amendment and supporting hate-crimes legislation. Recent polls show Udall narrowly leading Schaffer, who unsuccessfully ran for the state's other Senate spot in 2004. The Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy says the election will be decided largely by suburban voters and the GOP will try hard to portray Udall, who has worked to moderate his record, as "a typical Boulder liberal." "I think it's a better race than people have predicted," she says.

LOUISIANA

Two-term Democratic senator Mary Landrieu, who has earned high marks from HRC, could face another battle in the Bayou this year after narrowly winning her seat in 1996 and 2002. Since that time, Hurricane Katrina displaced a number of her loyal voters, and the state was the only one in the country that trended Republican in the 2006 midterm election. "She'll have to run in a changed, less friendly environment than she's ever run in before," Duffy explains. State treasurer John Kennedy, who switched parties to become her GOP rival, is not the "B-team candidate" that Landrieu has barely beaten in previous races, Duffy says. But the Miller points out that Landrieu's popularity is high, she has raised a lot of money early in the race, and her brother Mitch was recently reelected as lieutenant governor.

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MAINE

Centrist Republican senator Susan Collins, who has routinely achieved a favorable rating from HRC (78% in the 109th Congress), could face a tough fight against popular Democratic congressman Tom Allen. Collins, who voted for the Iraq war, has sided with liberals on many key social issues. Research by Portland, Maine, polling firm Critical Insights showed Collins as a strong early favorite, leading Allen statewide 54% to 34%, with strong support independent vote. To lessen the gap, Duffy says Allen "has to redefine her in the eyes of voters, and then he has to define himself" to those outside of his district. Collins has "a history of talking like a moderate and then coming to D.C. and not voting like one," Miller says, and Allen needs to take that message to voters. "if someone is going to beat Susan Collins, it's Tom Allen and it's in 2008," adds Equality Maine executive director Betsy Smith.

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MINNESOTA

In one of the nation's most closely watched races, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman will take on one of two well-known Democrats-talk-show host and comedian Al Franken or prominent trial attorney Mike Ciresi. Franken and Ciresi have agreed to abide by the results of a June nominating convention. "I think voters will consider electability, and that's Franken's downfall," Dully says of the outspoken former Saturday Night Live performer. Ciresi made a name for himself in the mid 1990s by representing Minnesota in landmark litigation against the U.S. tobacco industry. Coleman, who does not have a good track record on gay issues, is seen by some as too conservative for his state. A number of polls in 2007 showed Coleman scarcely defeating either Democrat--never a good sign for an incumbent.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

Republican senator John Sununu is up for a rematch with former Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu, who had served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, narrowly beat Shaheen, the state's first female chief executive (50%-47%) in 2002, and the Democratic Party has made his seat a top target in 2008. Duffy says Sununu "hasn't done anything wrong" and is "pretty well-respected," but the political climate in the state has changed. In 2006, Democrats knocked off two Republican congressmen in N.H. and increased their share of seats in the state legislature from 37% to 60%. "That is a sign of real, fundamental change and not just a backlash toward Republicans nationally," she says.

NEW MEXICO

When Republican Pete Domenici announced he was retiring after over 30 years in the Senate, all three House members from the Land of Enchantment tossed their hats into the ring. The presumably tight race will pit Democrat Tom Udall against one of two GOP lawmakers--Steve Pearce or Heather Wilson, both of whom voted for a federal same-sex marriage ban. Udall trumps them on gay issues (with a 75% HRC rating), and he has a thoroughly stocked war chest, Equality New Mexico field coordinator Christopher Salas says. Veteran political consultant Joe Sudbay says the party "got one of the best candidates they could have found." But the battle could get bloody if Wilson, a self-described moderate, gets her party's nomination, because she has been winning in a swing district for nearly a decade, Salas says. Duffy adds that Wilson has "fought for her political life every two years" and as a result, "developed some pretty sharp elbows." Several polls show Udall, whose cousin is running for Senate in Colorado (see p. 25), beating either Republican by a slim margin.

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RELATED ARTICLE: What's a filibuster?

In the classic 1939 film Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, Jimmy Stewart memorably vows that wild horses could not drag him off the Senate floor--a declaration that sets the stage for one of the most memorable speeches in American cinema. But Sen. Jefferson Smith's fictional filibuster, which saves his political reputation, is a far cry from what the legislative stall tactic has become.

Columbia University political scientist Gregory Wawro explains that the term, which is derived from the Spanish filibustero, meaning "pirate" or "freebooter," has a different interpretation in contemporary politics. "Everything of any importance is threatened with a filibuster," he says, but no need for one superhero to read for hours on end from the phone book anymore. "You don't have to hold the floor these days, Mr. Smith style."

Wawro, who coauthored a 2006 book on the topic, says the threat of filibustering has become routine and that building a "supermajority" of 60 votes or more for cloture, which automatically ends debate on a bill and puts it to vote, is the name of the game. Unless a sponsor can rally the 60 votes, "it's very unlikely that the bill will make it to the floor," he says.

Supermajorities are hard to get, "especially today, given how polarized the two parties are," and the Democrats' slim advantage, Wawro says. That means sponsors have to reach further across the aisle to get the necessary three-fifths majority, which often involves watering down legislation perceived as being controversial.

In the 1960s no Senate term had more than seven filibusters, and in the first decade of the rest century, no term had less than 49 filibuster cloture votes. By comparison, the current Senate's first session alone racked up a whopping 60-plus.

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