Is summer heating up?

Science World, May 10, 2004 by Jacqueline Adams

Can't wait for summer? Teens in Europe might not share your enthusiasm. That's because last summer, they sweated through three months of a record-breaking heat wave. Across Europe, nearly 20,000 people died when temperatures topped 40[degrees]C (104[degrees]F)--5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal.

Now, a new climate model (computer program that simulates Earth's climate) suggests that blistering European summers like the last one--which should occur only once every 46,000 years--could become the norm by the end of the century.

Why the sudden change? The likely culprit is global warming, says Christoph Schar, leader of the climate-model research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. Besides slowly raising Earth's average temperature, global worming may also increase temperature variability. That means future summers could go from scorching one year to colder than usual the next. But since overall temperatures will be warmer in the future, even a "cold" summer would feel warm--like a normal one today, explains Schar.

What's your summer forecast? Schar's study targets Central Europe, but he warns: "The mechanisms isolated in our study might occur in other regions too." Schar doesn't know when the weather change will begin. So fill up your water bottle, just in case your vacation's a sizzler.

Resources:

For more information related to this issue's new stories, check out the following Web sites:

To see a satellite map showing the unusual European heat wave in 2003, go to: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/ images.php3?img_id=15783

This Web site from the Exploratorium science museum is filled with information about global warming: www.exploratorium.edu/climate/