Is Australia overpopulated?

E: The Environmental Magazine, March-April, 1998 by Jason Doyle

Europe and Australia are about the same size, but the former has 660 million people and the latter only 18 million. Demographers concluded long ago that Europe was in danger of bursting at the seams, but Australia? Since white settlement of the continent began in 1788, the main concern of Australians has been underpopulation.

Indeed, successive generations of Australians have advocated a rapid increase in their numbers, seeking to develop the country economically and to protect it from foreign aggression. From only 3.7 million in 1901, the population has soared to its current 18 million. With a relatively high fertility rate of 1.85 children per woman, Australia's population could double in 50 years.

Many Australian politicians have been very happy with the increase. In 1983, ex-Premier of Victoria Henry Bolte observed that his state had grown by one million people during his term in office and asked, "Isn't that the yardstick of achievement and success?"

But significant dissenting views have emerged. A majority of the public believes that Australia is, in fact, unable to sustainably support a large human population. The main problem lies in the generally inhospitable and fragile nature of the continent itself, which tends to contradict the image of large spaces waiting to be settled.

The driest of all vegetated continents, Australia's total runoff of water is well short of the runoff from the Mississippi River alone. The landscape is also an inhibitor. No less than 70 percent of the continent is considered arid or semi-arid, with few permanent rivers, unpredictable rainfall and ancient soils. On top of that, Australia is facing severe environmental problems, with intense agriculture and deforestation causing widespread salinity, desertification and soil erosion. Just seven percent of the original vegetation remains, writes population expert Paul Ehrlich, and the removal of native trees has greatly disrupted the normal water cycle and dramatically reduced the amount of arable land. "Our highly evolved ecosystems are extremely fragile," reports Dr. Tim Flannery of the Australian Museum in his book The Future Eaters.

"We've been overtaxing the land for so long there's no more 'give' in our ecosystems" warns botanist Dr. Mary White. She believes Australia may already be overpopulated, and suggests 13 million as an appropriate figure.

Immigration, rather than natural fertility, has been the primary engine behind Australia's rapid population growth, particularly in the 1980s, when annual influx climbed above 100,000. The anti-immigration talk has brought charges of racism forth, but Australia's aboriginal population, expected to number no more than 350,000 by the year 2001, is also concerned about being overwhelmed by what it calls "totally unsustainable" population growth. "Reducing immigration would only be racist if it was cut in a racially selective way, instead of across the board," says Australians for an Ecologically Sustainable Population.

A 1994 report prepared for Australia's Labor government found that over 90 percent of the public called for either stabilizing or reducing the population. CONTACT: Australians for an Ecologically Sustainable Population, PO Box 297, Civic square, Canberra 2608, Australia/(011)06-2571282.