Preparing for the challenges ahead: practical applications of futures research

FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin,The, Jan, 2004 by Sandy Boyd, Alberto Melis, Richard Myers

Many people do nothing about the future. After all, the future will occur momentarily, whether they plan for it, benefit from it, or are surprised by it. People's expectations about the future, however, often run to extremes. For example, the archetypal 1950s' concept of the year 2000 consisted of flying machines in every garage and robots as servants. Yet, today's advances in the medical and computer fields have transcended anything imagined a few decades ago.

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Because of the reactive nature inherent in the daily workings of their profession, law enforcement officials also tend not to overly concern themselves about the future. After all, most law enforcement efforts, as well as training, focus on responding to existing threats to the public's safety. Even those law enforcement professionals concerned about the future and futures research (2) usually concentrate on the next budget year, rather than on a 5- or 10-year strategic plan for their agencies.

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But, the future is here and probably changing faster than anyone can envision. Many people can remember a world without automated teller machines or the ubiquitous cell phone, but these items, not to mention computers, have changed the world to the point that society no longer can function the way it did in the past. To this end, law enforcement professionals must understand the importance of futures research. To help illustrate this, the authors present three scenarios that depict probable, possible, and preferred outcomes of the future. Each scenario then poses a question that all law enforcement agencies should answer based upon their preparedness to handle similar situations.

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Probable scenario: A major terrorist attack on American soil resulted in law enforcement agencies scrambling to exchange information and intelligence. Unfortunately, the agencies found most of that information incompatible and inaccessible. How many agencies are prepared for a present, and now obvious, danger?

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Possible scenario: During roll call on the swing shift, officers learned that another homicide occurred south of Main Street, so additional patrols must cover the area. They heard about daytime burglaries increasing near the high school, but the day shift can handle those. They find out that the group of homeless people that suddenly appeared in the city has begun camping under a bridge, so more patrols must focus on that location. Finally, they learned that city council, once again, has denied the chief's request for more personnel to fight the growing crime problem. Although happy with all of the overtime, the patrol officers recognized that they can accomplish only so much with limited personnel and funds. How many agencies are prepared only for business as usual?

Preferred scenario: A chief's journal entry on a typical Sunday night showed that he logged onto the department's network from home and scanned the activities of the weekend, just in case the mayor should ask about pending cases or potential risks to the city at their breakfast meeting Monday. Luckily for the chief, the system, organized in order of importance, enabled him to review the incidents that the media had accessed previously. He read about the latest report of "cyber road rage," where the suspect, incensed at a string of e-mails on a list serve, hacked into another citizen's personal computer through a broadband Internet hookup. This effectively assaulted the victim's computer and financial records. The department's system mined and gathered information from the Internet, based on keywords that the chief input, and organized the data in a short, abridged format. The last item that the chief saw was a bulletin about the latest organized crime ring stealing stored harvested human organs and selling them on the black market. This meant that people who can afford it and need transplants would have quicker access to these life-saving measures than those waiting on the medically generated priority list. How many agencies are prepared for such future challenges?

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ENVISIONING THE FUTURE

The remedy to the questions posed by these scenarios lies in futures research and in preparing law enforcement officers to have the capacity not only to manage change but also to thrive on it. A world exists beyond traditional police exercises of annual budgeting, strategic planning for 3- to 5-year periods, and critical incident debriefings. Futures research leads to the examination of the probable, possible, and preferable outcomes of the future and provides a basis for decision making today that will lead to a preferable future.

Despite working in a dynamic environment, law enforcement professionals traditionally resist change, particularly organizational change. At a time when most of society struggles to keep pace with changes in technological and demographic areas, crucial institutions, such as law enforcement, must prepare for change not only to simply tolerate it but also to view it as an opportunity to make future communities safe. "Futures research offers both philosophical and methodological tools to analyze, forecast, and plan in ways rarely seen in policing in the past." (3) To this end, agencies can employ these techniques of futures research to help them determine organizational capacity, apply technologies, develop potential officers, identify and obtain necessary resources, and explore the profession's direction.