The Conspiratorial Politics Of Thabo Mbeki

Within days the case against the three began to unravel when it emerged that the chief, indeed sole, 'witness' for the prosecution was James Nkambule, a former ANC Youth League official who is currently suspended from the organisation as he faces 77 charges of embezzlement and fraud in the Mpumalanga province 'Parks Board scandal'. Nkambule is a fierce opponent of Matthews Phosa dating from the latter's time as premier of Mpumalanga, a province riven by ANC internecine feuding after 1994. Nkambule had provided the police with a number of sworn affidavits supposedly fleshing out the details of the conspiracy but there was a basic lack of real evidence within them. Not surprisingly, given their adversarial relationship, he identified Phosa as the orchestrator of the conspiracy but could provide no evidence of any plans to 'physically harm' Mbeki, or any substantive proof of meetings between Phosa, Ramaphosa and Sexwale, merely an assumption that they were working together, and through the press, to discredit M beki. The only tenuous link Nkambule was able to establish with violence was his contention that any misinformation project might provide an individual or individuals with the incentive to attempt to harm the President. Moreover, the charge that the three would risk squandering valuable political capital by attempting to link Mbeki to the assassination of Chris Hani is devoid of credibility. Hani's assassination was investigated thoroughly, first by the courts and then by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) between 1996 and 1998 and at no stage did any 'Mbeki link' emerge. Indeed, the white right-wing extremists convicted of Hani's murder (the Conservative Party's Clive Derby-Lewis and the Polish immigrant, Janusz Walluz) failed to make any connection to Mbeki, even though establishing such a link would undoubtedly have improved their prospects of securing amnesty before the TRC.

The attempt by the ANC leadership to pass off this rather miserable concoction of untruths, suspicions and naked personal enmities as evidence of a major conspiracy invited (and duly received) widespread ridicule, Indeed, far from presenting Mbeki as a victim, the episode actually generated sympathy for the three accused and further eroded the President's standing at home and abroad -- yet another setback for a president whose two years in office have been punctuated by a series of crises and miscalculations across the entire spectrum of government decision making.

Explaining Mbeki's Behaviour

Given the paucity of evidence against the three named individuals, the attention of the South African media swiftly turned from debating the merits of the allegations to a detailed consideration of Mbeki's motives in allowing such a shallow exercise to bear the 'imprimatur of his approval', to quote the South African Financial Mail. (4 May 2001) In any discussion of Mbeki's motivation in sanctioning this enterprise, two factors appear to be of overriding importance. The first is a presidential political mindset in which suspicion, conspiracy theories, an extreme sensitivity to criticism, and even paranoia are the most salient characteristics. Many attribute this mindset to the legacy of decades of ANC exile politics in which the organisation's leadership, driven by the very real fear of enemy penetration and assassination, operated in a secretive, Byzantine atmosphere which has fundamentally shaped -- or, perhaps more accurately, has warped -- its attitude to politics. There is little doubt that the political culture of the exiled leadership (among whom Mbeki was, of course, a leading figure) has spilled over into the post-liberation era, leading to what one source has described as a 'presidency consumed by suspicion of even well-founded criticism and fear of a challenge to Mbeki's leadership'. (Guardian, 24 April) It is hardly coincidental that the accusations were directed at those who were internal leaders during 'the struggle' and who therefore operated outside of the close -- even closed -- networks of the exiled leadership and with whom the same bonds of trust and loyalty have not been formed (although the pressure applied to the Deputy President, Jacob Zuma, indicates that ties forged during the exile years are no longer a cast-iron guarantee that Mbeki's favour will be retained).