The Tories have a future

Contemporary Review, April, 2005 by Robert S. Redmond

THE general public who may be excused and the political commentators (particularly the BBC) who ought to know better seem to have no doubt that the Labour Government is assured of a third term by a big majority. They have argued that the Conservative Party faces, if not annihilation, something near to total disaster. Some have even suggested it may never recover. If only these folk would look at past history they might just see the possibility of a big surprise. This is not to say history ever repeats itself exactly or that what happened in the past will ever happen without any difference again. Events, however, do have a habit of confusing forecasters. Let us look at some examples from history.

In January this year there was a review in The Daily Telegraph of a new selection of the Diaries of Charles Greville, the nineteenth-century official who recorded political life. This review began: 'Does any of this sound familiar: a prime minister hated by his party, an invasion of an Asian country ... a Tory party brought low by a chronic lack of loyalty and the inability to find an effective leader ... an Irish problem. This went on with more examples. Plus ca Change .... It was all in the reign of George IV'.

There is no-one around today with personal memories of the political situation after the Liberal landslide of 1906. There were obituaries then for the Conservative Party. They may have continued in that vein after the two elections of 1910. The Tories did not form a government on their own again until 1922. Yet no one now can say it did not thrive under Stanley Baldwin's leadership in spite of two Labour minority governments in his time. Three electoral victories for the Liberals had not given that party a great future. Could one not suggest that, far from the end of the Tories, it is 'New Labour' which might be facing demise?

After 1945, the Conservatives had another huge setback. There was a massive Labour majority led by Clement Attlee. By 1950 there was still pessimism in Tory ranks. The new public opinion polls showed the two major parties neck and neck--much, in fact as they have been recently. The 1950 election was almost a draw and 1951 saw the beginning of thirteen years of Conservative government.

In 1970 the polls were showing miserable figures for those seeking to gain marginal seats. Few of us expected to succeed. Harold Wilson was making speeches in which he referred to us as 'that once great party'. On the Friday before polling day Edward Heath came to Manchester to speak in the Free Trade Hall. This was a splendid gathering, but, on the way home, the ten o'clock news on the car radio made depression deeper. The latest opinion poll showed that the Labour lead had increased to twelve points. What we lesser mortals did not know was that the expectations in Central Office and the Shadow Cabinet were also pessimistic. This is well described by Lewis Baston in his excellent recent book Reggie--The Life of Reginald Maudling. A week later, on 18th June, I became a Member of Parliament and Edward Heath was Prime Minister next day. One needs to recall that Heath had not captured the imagination of the public. There was much speculation and discussion about who would be the new leader after the election. After all the pre-election gossip, we were happy and the subject was forgotten. History could well repeat itself this time.

That 1970 result was a shock to the BBC. It had drawn up a programme for interviews on election night with successful Labour candidates after the counts.

Suddenly, their plan had gone awry. There were frantic telephone calls reaching chaps like me to, please, stay up until camera crews and interviewers could reach us. These teams arrived in Bolton around three in the morning. The BBC had been disorientated by the sudden upset and it showed. They simply could not understand what had happened. Next day, they said the polls had been wrong. Nothing of the sort. They were simply, as usual, right at the time they were taken. Public opinion had swung at the last moment. In fact, it was clear that given another seven days of campaign and the Conservative Government would have had a bigger majority. The swing came in the last few days and would have continued.

For years, the Conservative Party has been in the doldrums. There have been leadership problems and no one has been listening to us Tories in the 'provinces'. A big Labour majority is expected. Some have even said that after the next polling day there will be fewer Tory MPs than there are now; that the future lies with the Liberal Democrats who will claim to be the official opposition. To make an election forecast is not the aim of this article, but it might be pertinent to remind New Labour of what happened to the Liberals after 1906. They never formed another new government. Surely, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that history can sometimes repeat itself in, perhaps, a more modern fashion.

It must also be reasonable to remind politicians of the general election of 1950. The Labour Government had more or less run its course and it was far from popular. The Conservative organization was at its peak with Lord Woolton as Chairman and RAB Butler leading policy researches. On the other side, the Left Book Club and other media had never stopped denigrating the Tories who were said to favour unemployment. It was argued that Tories had opposed the introduction of the National Health Service and had done a number of other nasty things. Above all, the Leader Winston Churchill was branded as a war monger. The Daily Mirror printed a front page with a picture of a revolver captioned 'Whose finger on the Trigger?' To a Tory like me, this was outrageous. It was so effective that one Lancashire candidate asked a visiting speaker not to mention Churchill in his speech. This visitor was my own candidate Sir Walter Bromley Davenport and, typically, he refused to be so faint-hearted. He praised Winston and got a round of applause. There was no timidity with him and he proved that it was right to face the issue. If only more had done so.