The capricious, actively evasive, unsustainable nature of psi: a summary and hypotheses

Journal of Parapsychology, The, Spring, 2003 by J.E. Kennedy

Palmer (1981) noted that position effects received relatively little attention after the 1940s. We are left with the impression that these internal effects become elusive when they become an expected or intended outcome. Of course, skeptics would argue that the internal effects were (are) simply post hoc data selection in an effort to salvage nonsignificant results. However, the position effects were remarkably consistent in the early studies--at least when they were not intended or expected.

Batcheldor (1994) commented that his efforts to investigate macro (nonstatistical) PK phenomena had similar properties. He summarized his experience as follows:

The evidence exists, but it fluctuates. And a closer examination shows that ... the evidence seems to "avoid" those positions in time or space where we are actively looking for it. ... And then, later, new evidence is found elsewhere and under tight conditions. (p. 93)

Loss or EFFECTS

In addition to the changes in psi manifestations noted above, the loss of psi effects may also indicate the evasiveness and unsustainability of psi. The loss of psi effects occurs for individual subjects, experimenters, and lines of research.

Pratt (1975) summarized the universal loss of psi effects with individual subjects: "we must recognize what has been the most serious limitation on psi research with outstanding subjects. This is the unexplained loss of ability that has always brought their successful performance in the test situation to an end" (p. 159).

Houtkooper (1994, 2002; Haraldsson & Houtkooper, 1995) proposed the term "meta-analysis demolition" to describe the loss of effect for an experimenter or experimenter group. His evaluation of seven different series of studies found that a summary evaluation was followed by an average of 90% reduction in effect size. Kennedy and Taddonio (1976) noted other examples of declining effects for experimenters. In early parapsychological research, Taves and Dale (1943) used the term experimenter "Midas touch in reverse" to describe the tendency for effects to decline within a study.

Bierman (2001) showed that declines in effect are typical for most lines of research in parapsychology. His evaluation used several meta-analysis databases. Because most popular lines of research were initiated by psi-conducive experimenters, these declines probably result from declines for individual researchers combined with failed replication efforts by experimenters who are not psi-conducive. Beloff (1994) and Pratt (1978) commented on the apparently universal decline in effect for psi research before the advent of meta-analyses.

Despite these various declines, the overall significance level for most of these participants, experimental series, and lines of research remains significant. There is evidence for psi, but the effects seem systematically unstable.

These declines are an anomalous form of unreliability that indicate an inhibitory process. Unreliability normally manifests in one of two patterns over time. The effect sizes and proportion of studies with statistically significant outcomes will tend to increase for later studies if relevant variables are identified and controlled. Alternatively, the effects will remain relatively uniform across studies if there is no progress in understanding the phenomenon. The widespread declines found in psi research indicate an inhibition of psi as well as a general lack of progress in understanding psi.