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Factors predictive of outcome on admission to an acute geriatric ward - Statistical Data Included

Age and Ageing, Sept, 1999 by Teresa Alarcon, Almudena Barcena, juan I. Gonzalez-Montalvo, Carmen Penalosa, Alberto Salgado

Aim: to investigate which factors predict outcome of elderly patients on discharge and at 6 months. Methods: a prospective study in an acute geriatric ward. Within 48 h of admission, patients were assessed for social factors, geriatric problems, admission diagnoses, medication, function and mental ability.

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Outcome measures were mortality, length of stay, institutionalization, readmissions and attendance at accident and emergency within 6 months. Results: 353 patients were studied, with a mean age of 81.8 years. Logistic regression analyses showed that variables predicting hospital mortality were Barthel index on admission, pre-morbid disability and polypharmacy. The only variable independently predictive of prolonged stay in hospital was a Barthel score of <45 on admission. Functional disability on admission was predictive of institutionalization on discharge. Variables predicting mortality within 6 months of discharge were Barthel index on admission <65, presence of pressure sores, malnutrition and polypharmacy. Variables independently predictive of institutionalization were mental state and a low pension. Those who took more than five drugs on admission were more likely to attend accident and emergency and be readmitted. Conclusion: limited activities of daily living and geriatric problems on admission are the strongest predictive factors of outcome, independent of diagnoses.

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Factors predictive of outcome on admission to an acute geriatric ward - Statistical Data Included

Age and Ageing, Sept, 1999 by Teresa Alarcon, Almudena Barcena, juan I. Gonzalez-Montalvo, Carmen Penalosa, Alberto Salgado

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