Caspian Sea Oil — Still The Great Game For Central Eurasia. - Review - book review

Arab Studies Quarterly (ASQ), Wntr, 2001 by Andre Gunder Frank

Michael P. Croissant and Bulent Aras. Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Sea Region. Westport, Conn. & London: Praeger, 1999. XX & 305 pages. Hardcover, no price indicated.

A BOOK WITH A FOREWORD by Pat Clawson of the National Defense University and editor of ORBIS, and dedicated to Ronald Reagan and Turgut Ozal, announces its far-right wing political pedigree literally up front. However, the book is chock full of in formation, alas most already well known to anyone even remotely familiar with the problematic under review; but it also offers some incisive analysis. The twelve contributed chapters by fourteen authors and co-authors are divided into three parts dedicated to examining and analyzing the general history and mutual background of the Caspian Sea region; to the five littoral states of Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan; and to three "external" interested states: the United States, Turkey, and Georgia. Nonetheless, the review by each author goes well beyond the nominative boundaries assigned to him or her and trespasses over into the topics, territories and their relations assigned to other authors. Quite properly so, in view of the mutually complex real-life interrelations in the Caspian Sea Basin, so that no topic or state could be adequately understood in itself other than in relation to the others. Indeed, we are witnessing the contemporary continuation of the nineteenth century "Great Game" for the control of Central Eurasia. However, the oil connection also reaches well beyond Caspian Sea and must make this book pertinent also to readers of this journal.

Clawson already explicitly, indeed brutally, lays out the groundwork in his two page foreword: The Caspian Sea region is a world-class oil area with complex econo- and geo-strategic conflicts of interest and corresponding competing policies among surrounding states and the West, particularly the United States. The issues are not only the oil per se, including its low price at the time of publication, but also the related conflicts of interest over pipeline routes and the U.S. intent to deny them to Russia and Iran. The rule of law, democracy and human rights come in at the tail end.

Chapter 1 by Bulent Gokay traces the history of Caspian Basin oil, beginning with that of Baku 2,500 years ago. He quotes from reports about the Baku region by travelers, including Marco Polo, who visited the area between 915 A.D. and 1684 A.D. Then he reviews more recent Russian and Soviet interests and activities there. Chapter 2 by Cynthia and Michael Croissant examines the "legal status" of the Caspian Sea, whose interpretations are used by each littoral state in attempts to legitimate its own economic interests and political claims. The claim that the Caspian is an inland "lake" is advanced by Russia and Iran, because under international law it would support the common rights of the littoral states, among whom these two big ones would be more equal than others. The smaller states argue that the Caspian is a sea, under which the same international law would divide the area into national "sectors" that would result in more equal access and rights to all. The United States supports this interpretation, bec ause it would limit access to its Russian and Iranian enemies. Chapter 3 by Jenifer DeLay examines the confused tangle of existing and proposed pipelines, which is far too complex to summarize here. Suffice it to say that each state seeks to maximize the length of pipeline that would pass through or goes to its territory and to deny the same to its competitors. Again the United States is intent on avoiding pipeline routes through Russia and Iran. Therefore toward the West, they would have to pass through alternative routes in Turkey and competing ones in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. They have intense national and political, including armed, conflicts among each other and rival supporting alliances with Russia. For the time being, these conflicts render pipeline planning and construction more than problematical for everybody concerned, again including the West and particularly the U.S. The government of the latter favors a route through Turkey to its Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, about which the private oi l companies have reservations -- unless they receive massive public subsidies -- because this route would be the most expensive to build. Since the publication of this book, agreement has nonetheless been reached on this option, presumably including such unrevealed public subsidies by the U.S. and Turkey.

So as not to put all pipeline eggs into one basket route, before this agreement and perhaps still, there has been serious consideration also of various routes through the Black Sea. Since Russia wants more oil to pass through its own ports on this Sea, which the West seeks to prevent, and Turkey does not want the danger of oil spills next to Istanbul on the Bosphorus, the idea is to ship it or even to pipe it under the sea to the Western shores of the Black Sea. The countries there provide a local market for oil, and pipelines would also extend to West European consumers. Interestingly, one of these possible routes would pass through or near Kosovo, which converts it into an area of particular geo-economic and geo-political interest to the West, whose policies are examined further on in the book and this review. Since its publication of course NATO waged war there, purportedly for "humanitarian" reasons that supposedly are unrelated to these strategic oil considerations examined below. But, as Stephen Blank notes in his chapter on the United States (see below), the region has been the place where empires meet the natural limits of their power since Alexander the Great.