The geopolitics of post-Soviet Russia and the Middle East

Arab Studies Quarterly (ASQ), Wntr, 2002 by Andrej Kreutz

The Americans do not limit themselves to "particularly sustained human and financial investments in Azerbaijan, Turkemenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan [and since the last two years also in Georgia], aiming to exploit the as yet largely untapped oil and gas deposits in the long term". (27) The U.S. also sees cooperation in security issues involving direct military involvement as "a major element in its strategy for the countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia," (28) and from 1999 those countries have been included in the area of responsibility of the Central Command of the American Armed Forces. (29) According to some authors, the Russian military, who are particularly well informed about both the new strategic threats and the costs of fortifying the country's new borders, are thus claiming that it is "Moscow's historic duty to protect the outer borders of the former Soviet Union". (30)

Russians are also concerned about the possibilities of Western control over Iraq and Iran. According to them, if such a situation were to occur, it would be very harmful for Russia's interests and would threaten its security. (31)

After the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, D.C. on 11 September 2001, in spite of all the American pressure and the new Powell doctrine "that the future litmus test for U.S. relations with any other country will be their behavior toward the United Sates in the War [against the alleged Muslim perpetrators]", (32) the response of the Russian government was restrained and cautious. According to President V. Putin, "the evil of terrorism must be punished", but any strikes against it must be carried out within the limits of international law and after full international consultation including Russia. Although he promised that Russia is ready for "comprehensive cooperation" with the U.S., he nevertheless stressed that Russian military participation beyond the borders of the country would be possible only after approval by the Federation Council and the U.N. Security Council, and that Russia does not intend to fight "a two front war", preferring to concentrate its efforts on Chechenya. (33) However, he had no choice but to add that "each of the post-Soviet countries, including Tajikistan, has full freedom to decide whether to allow the U.S. to use bases on its territory." (34) In fact the Russians are deeply concerned about the potential growth of American presence and influence to the south of their boarders -- especially in the "Near Abroad" territories of the Caucasus and Central Asia. (35) This is also probably the most important reason for their continuous support for Iran and Iraq. However, the support for Iraq and Iran is limited by the necessity for keeping in mind good relations with the West, especially the U.S.

It does not need to preclude quiet close Russian-American cooperation in the struggle against the Tailiban, or even in the war against what both countries consider to be a fundamentalist Islamic threat in general. Many recent developments seem to indicate that such an alliance is in fact in the offing. Putin has spoken on "a new level" of partnership with the U.S., and one of his aides commented that "with 100% certainty...the cooperation will be unprecedented, of a level unseen ever before..." (36) According to a prominent American analyst, "If the United States wants to fight an effective military campaign in Afghanistan, an alliance with Russia is essential"; this position is similar to the situation in World War II when "American strategy depended on the Soviet Union breaking the back of the Wehrmacht". (37) The price for that alliance, however, would be the return of Russian power to Central Asia and the Caucasus and renewed American-Russian conflict in the future." (38) It is also worth keeping in mind that according to recent opinion polls, 56% of Muscovites do not support the U.S.-led antiterrorist operations in Afghanistan and only 8% believe that Russian forces should take part in it. As many as 72% oppose strikes against other countries which the U.S. has identified as harboring terrorists, such as Iraq, Iran and Libya. (39)