Globalization: Trade And Investment In Egypt, Jordan And Syria Since 1980 - Statistical Data Included

Arab Studies Quarterly (ASQ), Summer, 1999 by Paul Sullivan

Even for a so-called isolated state like Syria, total trade has been hovering at around 50% of GDP from 1975 to date. For Syria it has been on a fairly even keel, unlike the trade/GDP ratios for Egypt and Jordan.(28)

Putting these figures in per capita terms one can get a better feel for the situation. Trade per capita for Jordan has been over GDP per capita for just about every years since 1975. In 1981-83 trade per capita was around $3000 and GDP was around $1000. Trade per capita has dropped to about $2000 since then. Overall, after a steep decline to 1987, GDP per capita has risen slightly since 1983.(29)

This, of course, was generated by global oil prices that generated regional remittances. These remittances then helped generated huge domestic imports during the time of the oil booms in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

For Egypt we see a still fairly trade sensitive economy with GDP per capita trailing just under the total trade per capita. The closest points for these two data series were in 1980-1982 when they were almost equal. From that time period an increasing gap occurred, that is only recently being closed - unfortunately because of the huge increase in imports into Egypt over the last few years since the Gulf war.

Syria seems to be the least trade sensitive of the three. The gap between GDP per capita and trade per capita had been widening from 1973 to 1985-86. However, this gap was in the opposite direction to the gap that was being produced in Jordan. For Syria GDP per capita was increasing much faster than trade per capita. After 1985-86 the gap was closing in Syria.(30)

Interim conclusion: Jordan is by far the most trade sensitive. Egypt comes in a far second. Syria is a distant third. The charts for GNP per capita and total trade per capita show similar results (please see charts a, b and c). Also in these charts one can see the trade sensitivity of these three countries. One can also see how internationally connected these countries have been.

Looking at the products these countries export may give us an idea of where to look to find where globalization may help their economic developments in the future:

Syria's largest export markets in 1996 were the EU, Italy in particular, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and, oddly, Costa Rica. Syria's largest import markets have been Italy, Japan, the People's Republic of China, Korea, the Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and Brazil. Now that seems like a global enough list for a small country like Syria.(31)

Syria's top export items are, by most important country of destination, the following:(32)

Product group for export           Top destination markets

Oil                                Italy, Germany and France
Cotton                             Italy and Spain
Petroleum Products                 Italy and Cyprus
Vegetables                         Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Italy
Fruits and Nuts                    Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt
Apparel                            Germany, France and the U.K.
Live Animals                       Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Italy
Wheat                              Tunisia, Germany and Belgium
Leather                            Italy, China and Turkey
Women's clothing                   U.K., Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait
Fertilizers                        France, Romania, and Yugoslavia