BLS Establishment Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 1998 Benchmarks - United States Bureau of Labor Statistics - Statistical Data Included

Employment and Earnings, June, 1999 by Sheila McConnell

With the release of data for May 1999, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision of national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. Each year, the CES survey realigns its sample-based estimates to reflect more currently available universe counts of employment--a process known as benchmarking. Comprehensive counts of employment, or benchmarks, are derived primarily from employment data reported on unemployment insurance (UI) tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file with State employment security agencies.

The incorporation of the March 1998 benchmarks has revised all unadjusted data for the period after the March 1997 benchmark, that is, from April 1997 forward. Seasonally adjusted employment, hours, indexes of aggregate hours, and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers have been revised from January 1994 forward.

Summary of the benchmark revisions

The March 1998 benchmark level for total nonfarm employment is 124,050,000; this figure is 44,000 above the previously published sample-based estimate, an adjustment of less then 0.05 percent. This year's revision stands in contrast to last year's more substantial upward revision of 0.4 percent (table 1).

Table 1. Percent differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry division, March 1991-98(1)

             Industry                 1991   1992   1993   1994

    Total                              -.6   -0.1    0.2    0.7
Mining                                 -.6    -.8    2.2    -.7
Construction                           -.2   -2.6    1.6    1.9
Manufacturing                           .1    -.8    1.1    1.3
Transportation and public utilities   -1.0    -.6    1.0    2.2
Wholesale trade                        -.2     .7   -2.6    1.2
Retail trade                           -.3     .9    -.2    1.3
Finance, insurance, and real estate    -.4   -1.5    1.5    2.1
Services                              -1.6     .2     .1    -.8
Government                             -.3     .4    -.1     .4

             Industry                 1995   1996   1997   1998

    Total                              0.5    (2)    0.4    (2)
Mining                                  .2    0.5    3.1    2.5
Construction                          -1.6     .2    1.1     .3
Manufacturing                           .3    1.0     .7     .3
Transportation and public utilities    -.7   -1.2    -.3     .6
Wholesale trade                        1.2   -1.7    -.1    (2)
Retail trade                           1.6     .5    -.1    -.5
Finance, insurance, and real estate   -1.8   -1.1     .5     .8
Services                                .9     .1    1.0    (2)
Government                              .2    -.1     .4    -.2

(1) Differences are based on comparisons of final, published March estimate and benchmark levels, as originally published.

(2) Less than 0.05 percent.

Table 2 summarizes the data for the March 1998 revisions, not seasonally adjusted, by industry. The small revision resulted from offsetting adjustments in two major sectors: An upward revision of 91,000 (0.4 percent) in the goods-producing sector was mitigated by a downward revision of 47,000 (less than 0.05 percent) in the service-producing sector. The upward adjustment within the goods-producing sector came almost entirely from manufacturing, which was adjusted by 61,000 (0.3 percent).

Table 2. Differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry, March 1998--Continued

(Numbers in thousands)