2008 presidential winter book: Washington's most trusted independent political analyst sets the scene

International Economy, The, Spring, 2006 by Charlie Cook

While much of the current political attention in the United States is focused on the hotly contested battle for control of Congress this fall. an equally competitive fight for the Presidency is looming, with the campaign effectively beginning the day after the November 7 midterm election, if not sooner. The extraordinary aspect about the 2008 election is that this will be the first presidential election in eighty years, since 1928, without a sitting President or Vice President running. In 1952, there was no President or Vice President on the general election ballot, but Alban Barkley, Harry Truman's Vice President, unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination. Without an incumbent or even semi-incumbent seeking either party's nomination, that makes both contests even more interesting and volatile than normal.

THE REPUBLICAN RACE

Each month, Democratic pollster Thomas Riehle and his Republican counterpart, Lance Tarrance, through their new corporate public affairs polling firm RT Strategies, conduct a national poll for the Cook Political Report. In their December survey, among Republican voters and independents who lean toward the Republican side and intend to vote in Republican caucuses or primaries, there was a tie for first place between Senator John McCain of Arizona and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, each with 25 percent of the vote, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich landing in third place with 12 percent.

After these three, support levels drop rather significantly, as the balance of the field of prospective candidates are largely unknown outside their home states and among true political aficionados. In fourth place was Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, followed by a two-way tie for fifth place between Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania with four percent each, though the latter is now seen as highly unlikely to run. With three percent each are Senator George Allen of Virginia and New York Governor George Pataki, while Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Governors Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Mark Sanford of South Carolina each had two percent (Sanford is now seen as unlikely to run as well). Rounding out the field was Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas.

The question was asked again in late March, but instead of the entire laundry list of candidates given, only the top three names were listed, with respondents offered the option of "or someone else." There was still a tie for first between McCain and Giuliani, this time with 30 percent each instead of 25, and Gingrich earned 11 percent instead of 12.

Given the volatile, unpredictable nature of presidential politics, only a fool at this early stage would feel certain they know who the nominee in either party will be, but it's a good bet that Republicans will not nominate a presidential candidate in 2008 who is pro-choice on the abortion issue and in favor of many gay rights and gun control measures. These are core litmus test issues for many voters in the Republican base. It would be hard enough to see the GOP nominate someone who is "wrong" on one or two out of three, let alone three (just to be fair and symmetrical, it is just as unlikely that Democrats would nominate someone who is pro-life on abortion, and pretty much opposed to any gun control or gay rights measures). In short, it is extremely unlikely that Rudy Giuliani will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2008 or anytime soon.

That leaves John McCain as the sole early true frontrunner for the GOP nomination, if he runs. Though the odds are great that he will run in 2008, keep in mind that in late August of that year, he will turn 72 years of age, a year older than Ronald Reagan was upon becoming President, and the Arizonan would become the oldest person to become president. It should also be remembered that McCain has had a harder life than most of the rest of us, having spent five and a half years of torture in a prisoner of war camp, and more recently, suffering through three bouts of skin cancer. There is every sign that McCain intends to run and will run, but under these circumstances, there will always be a certain percentage chance that he will not make the race.

While McCain has many very strong qualities, he does have one real problem. Too many conservatives and members of the Republican establishment hate him, resenting his independence and maverick positioning, his adamant support for campaign finance reform, his opposition to President Bush on some high visibility issues such as his ban on torture of Iraq and terrorism detainees and his middle ground position on gun control. You could say that the U.S. Navy did not put McCain in a single seat fighter for nothing--the guy has never been much of a team player.

In recent months, McCain has tried hard to overcome these perceptions, has become a vehement defender of President Bush on every possible issue, and for the record has always been a staunch defender of the war in Iraq. How successful McCain can be in repositioning himself as sufficiently loyal and trustworthy that the party will entrust their nomination to him is the $64,000 question.