The incredible shrinking prime minister; after promising a revolution of reform, Japan's Junichiro Koizumi is just more of the same

International Economy, The, Summer, 2002 by Brett M. Decker

As if the economic numbers weren't humiliating enough, the Japanese received an embarrassing lecture from U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, who reminded officials in Tokyo that the world expects more responsible leadership from a country with a GDP of around $5.5 trillion. In a speech to the Japan National Press Club in January, the secretary bluntly stated that the time was now for "decisive actions" that must be "quick and effective," and with no more "partial measures." While O'Neill surely could have been more strident, even these basic suggestions were considered harsh and contradicted the previous Clinton administration's policy of not criticizing Japanese financial mismanagement.

Japan's diminishing international prestige has,resulted in plummeting poll ratings for the government. By late May, Koizumi's support sat at a meager 40 percent--his lowest ever and just half of what he enjoyed only a handful of months earlier. Even more poignant for the prime minister's political standing, his approval rating among women--the key constituency he worked so hard to woo--dropped to 37 percent. Overall, a vast majority of Japanese voters has decided that the current government is useless. On April 26, the Yomiuri newspaper published a poll in which 66 percent responded that the prime minister had accomplished "nothing in particular."

Clearly, these numbers should serve as a wake-up call. Japanese originally liked Koizumi for his bold ideas and his courage to take on the establishment, but support flip-flopped as his agenda began to look unimpressively mainstream. The obvious elixir to restore confidence in his government and his leadership is to return to the reform agenda that voters want and that the economy so desperately needs.

Unfortunately, this is not the path the prime minister has chosen to take. Instead, recent activity has chiefly been limited to political stunts and a certain circling of the wagons with LDP leaders. At the end of April, Koizumi almost reneged on a campaign promise and admitted that he was thinking about reshuffling his cabinet--a traditional old-school tactic that guarantees every LDP heavyweight gets his turn in an important post. While Koizumi eventually hung fire, this served as a signal to party powerbrokers that their prime minister isn't totally off their reservation. Seeking favor with nationalists and populists, Koizumi twice visited the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial monument to Japanese war dead, including convicted war criminals. But most worrisome of all was his January firing of super-popular Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka, the most outspoken reformer in his cabinet. The white noise surrounding the dismissal notwithstanding, Tanaka was sacked to undermine her all-out effort to wrestle ministry bureaucrats under control--a potential shakeup that worded the establishment.

So where does all this leave the rebel reformer? At worst, Koizumi's political posturing and genuflections to the old guard reveal a man who is not serious about reform--his blustery rhetoric was merely a ruse to get elected and divert voters away from the opposition. Allowing a little charity, it can be said that the job of restructuring the way Tokyo works is a near-impossible undertaking for any one man. But under either interpretation, Mr. Koizumi is still a failure at this point.