Energy alternatives: can they make a significant difference?

Middle East, The, August-Sept, 2008

"Simply setting a target [to reduce reliance on petrol and other transport fuels] without stipulating what kind of biofuel is to be used, in what circumstances, can have all sorts of unintended consequences," a source close to the panel told the media in June.

The report, while recognising the potential role of biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels, says a distinction should be drawn between "first-generation" biofuels which use food crops such as corn, palm and soya and "second-generation" fuels based on fibrous non-food plants. These "second generation" crops include the sugar cane waste used by Brazil--one of the world's earliest and largest producers of ethanol--which could be grown without displacing food crops, thereby minimising their effect on world food prices.

Calls to scrap the US federal requirement to use 36bn gallons of ethanol by 2022 are also mounting, according to reports from Washington. Even if implemented, the target would only meet around 10% of the country's current demand for transport fuels, at the cost of driving up food prices. Corn ethanol, campaigners in the US maintain, also emits more carbon dioxide, while producing a third less energy per gallon of fuel, than petrol derived from crude oil.

But fuel demand goes beyond that needed for transport. Global financial analysts have noted that the US is currently the only major industrialised nation in which overall oil consumption, for home heating, air conditioning, industrial use, electricity generation and agriculture has surged since the global oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s. This, they say, can be partly explained by the fact that the US has some of the lowest petrol prices in the world, the least fuel-efficient cars, the lowest energy taxes and the longest daily car commuting times of any industrialised nation.

As a result, The New York Times reported in April, about a quarter of the world's oil goes to the US every day. More than half of this goes to provide transport fuels for cars and trucks.

Elsewhere in the world, China, one of the most rapidly growing economies in the world, is building new, highly polluting coal-fired power stations at a phenomenal rate to keep up with its industrial expansion. But it also has a large wind-generating capacity, which is expected to grow by two-thirds this year. China is also the world's second-largest manufacturer of solar panels, not to mention having the largest number of solar-heated rooftop, hot-water systems in its buildings.

Solar, whether from panels, photo-voltaic cells or mirrors, is expected to become far more economical in price and to expand rapidly across the globe. Mass production, for export, could come from North Africa, where both Algeria and Morocco are installing huge experimental solar fields to provide energy both for domestic use and for export to Europe.

Wind energy is also expanding rapidly, with substantial investments from the private sector. T. Boone Pickens, one of the US's most renowned oilmen and investors, has decided to build a $2bn wind farm in Texas. General Electric plans to sell $6bn-worth of wind turbines this year, assuming that by 2020 some 15% of the US electricity needs will be generated from wind, a figure that is close to that which is expected from nuclear power.