Monthly energy review: July 1997

Monthly Energy Review, July, 1997

Annual Energy Review 1996

Patterns of energy consumption in the United States have changed markedly since the early 1970's. From 1949 to 1970, both domestic energy production and consumption roughly doubled, rising steadily except for a few slight dips during the 1950's [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE OMITTED]. Between 1970 and 1996, consumption and production are characterized by peaks and valleys, with consumption increasing by 41 percent and production by only 17 percent. The gap between production and consumption during this latter period has led to greater dependence on imported energy.

Such trends are vividly displayed in tables and graphs in the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Review 1996 (AER), which presents long-term historical annual data on U.S. energy production, consumption, stocks, trade, and prices. Many of the data series run from 1949 through 1996, providing nearly a half-century of data for analysis of long-term trends.

The AER emphasizes domestic energy statistics, with information on specific energy sources, including petroleum, coal, natural gas, electricity, nuclear energy, and renewable energy. Energy consumption statistics are displayed for the major economic sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation). One section reports international statistics, such as world production of energy by country.

For the first time, the AER incorporates estimates of coal consumption by independent power producers as well as electric utilities. Key tables in the electricity and environmental indicators sections have been restructured to shift their focus from electric utilities alone to the entire electric power industry. Other new features include world carbon dioxide emissions for 1986 though 1995; U.S. energy activities by foreign-affiliated companies for 1978 through 1994; State rankings of average energy prices and expenditures for 1994; the number of manufacturing sector establishments by Standard Industry Classification and by the types of energy sources used for inputs for heat, power, and electricity generation in 1994; and alternative-fueled vehicles estimated to be in use in 1996.

Motor Gasoline Assessment 1997

In the spring of 1996, U.S. stocks of motor gasoline were low and prices rose sharply, increasing by 18 percent between mid-February and mid-May. A year later, motor gasoline stocks were even lower - yet prices declined, bottoming out in early May about 5 percent below their January peak. Market conditions were much alike in some ways: demand growth was low or modest; demand was met almost entirely through production, rather than stock drawdowns; imports were very high. Nevertheless, prices moved in opposite directions. Why?

Petroleum markets are complex. This story, described in the Energy Information Administration's new report Motor Gasoline Assessment 1997, illustrates the profusion of forces and factors at work. For example, during the early months of 1996, world demand for petroleum was high and stock draws were heavy. Supply growth was lower than expected, in part because Iraq's re-entry into the market was delayed. These factors and cold weather drove crude oil prices up. In the United States, prolonged cold weather forced drawdowns of distillate (fuel oil and diesel fuel) stocks and encouraged refiners to concentrate on additional distillate production at the expense of gasoline production. Low gasoline stocks, high demand, and rising crude oil prices drove gasoline prices up.

In early 1997, in contrast, global demand for petroleum was lower and draws on winter stocks were light. Iraq's resumption of crude oil sales and other production increases strongly boosted supplies. Prices subsequently began to fall. Here at home, despite record low distillate stocks early in the winter, increased production and mild weather left winter's-end stocks at normal levels. Although gasoline stocks were low and production growth modest, very high import levels helped meet high demand. Falling crude oil prices brought gasoline prices down with them.

Motor Gasoline Assessment 1997 analyzes these events in detail and describes the interactions between U.S. gasoline markets and international crude oil markets. The report also examines the special case of California, which is beginning to resemble an almost-isolated market, in part because of such factors as its requirement for unique reformulated gasoline. The report concludes with a look at gasoline price variations by region, class of trade, and grade, and finally with a price forecast for the rest of the summer.

Commercial Buildings Characteristics 1995

The United States had 4.6 million commercial buildings in 1995, averaging 12,840 square feet in size. Total U.S. commercial floorspace - nearly 59 billion square feet - exceeded the area of the State of Delaware. Two-thirds of commercial buildings were used as retail stores, offices, warehouses, or places of education; six percent were vacant. More than half of all commercial floorspace was built before 1970 [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE OMITTED]. Ninety-seven percent of commercial floorspace used electricity and 66 percent used natural gas. Seventy percent of commercial buildings counted water heating, lighting, space heating, and cooling as dominant energy uses. At least one method of energy conservation was used in 89 percent of commercial buildings, and conservation efforts increased since 1989.