Section 6. Coal

Monthly Energy Review, May, 2005

Coal production in April 2005 totaled 92 million short tons, slightly lower than in April 2004.

Coal consumed by the electric power sector in February 2005 was 80 million short tons, 3 percent lower than the level in February 2004.

Electric power sector coal stocks were 99 million short tons at the end of February 2005, 9 percent lower than the level a year earlier.

Coal exports in March 2005 totaled 3 million short tons, 23 percent lower than exports in March 2004. Coal imports in March 2005 totaled 3 million short tons, 83 percent higher than imports in March 2004.

Coal

Note 1. Production: Preliminary monthly estimates of national coal production are the sum of weekly estimates developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and published in the Weekly Coal Production report. When a week extends into a new month, production is allocated on a daily basis and added to the appropriate month. Weekly estimates are based on Association of American Railroads data showing the number of railcars loaded with coal during the week by Class I and certain other railroads. This number is converted into tons of coal by EIA by using the average number of tons of coal per railcar loaded reported in the most recent "Quarterly Freight Commodity Statistics" from the Surface Transportation Board. If an average coal tonnage per railcar loaded is not available for a specific railroad, the national average is used. To derive the estimate of total weekly production, the total rail tonnage for the week is divided by the ratio of quarterly production shipped by rail and total quarterly production. Data for the corresponding quarter of previous years are used to derive this ratio. This method ensures that the seasonal variations are preserved in the production estimates.

When preliminary quarterly data become available, the monthly and weekly estimates are adjusted to conform to the quarterly figure. The adjustment procedure uses State-level production data and is explained in EIA's Quarterly Coal Report. Initial estimates of annual production published in January of the following year are based on preliminary production data covering the first 9 months (three quarters) and weekly/monthly estimates for the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter estimates may or may not be revised when preliminary data become available in March of the following year, depending on the magnitude of the difference between the estimates and the preliminary data. In any event, all quarterly, monthly, and weekly production figures are adjusted to conform to the final annual production data published in the Monthly Energy Review in the fall of the following year.

Note 2. Consumption: Coal consumption data are reported by major end-use sector. Forecast data for the most recent months (designated by an "F") are derived from forecasted values shown in the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (DOE/EIA-0202) table titled "U.S. Coal Supply and Demand: Mid World Oil Price Case." The monthly estimates are based on the quarterly values, which are released in March, June, September, and December. The estimates are revised quarterly as collected data become available from the data sources. Sector-specific information follows.

Residential and Commercial--Coal consumption by the residential and commercial sectors is reported to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the two sectors combined; EIA estimates the amount consumed by the sectors individually. To create the estimates, it is first assumed that an occupied coal-heated housing unit consumes fuel at the same Btu rate as an oil-heated housing unit. Then, for the years in which data are available on the number of occupied housing units by heating source (1973-1981 and subsequent odd-numbered years), residential consumption of coal is estimated by the following steps: a ratio is created of the number of occupied housing units heated by coal to the number of occupied housing units heated by oil; that ratio is then multiplied times the Btu quantity of oil consumed by the residential sector to derive an estimate of the Btu quantity of coal consumed by the residential sector; and, finally, the amount estimated as the residential sector consumption is subtracted from the residential and commercial sectors' combined consumption to derive the commercial sector's estimated consumption. The 2003 share is applied to 2004 and succeeding years, and the other missing years' shares are interpolated.

Industrial Coke Plants--Prior to 1980, monthly coke plant consumption data were taken directly from reported data. From 1980-1987, coke plant consumption estimates were derived by proportioning reported quarterly data by using the ratios of monthly-to-quarterly consumption data in 1979, the last year in which monthly data were reported. Beginning in January 1988, monthly coke plant consumption estimates are derived from the reported quarterly data by using monthly ratios of raw steel production data from the American Iron and Steel Institute. The ratios are the monthly raw steel production from open hearth and basic oxygen process furnaces as a proportion of the quarterly production from those kinds of furnaces.