Letters

National Interest, The, Fall, 2000

Brzezinski's claim that "no 'European' is willing to die for 'Europe"' is not quite accurate. Dozens of West European soldiers--with Spain in the lead--died in Bosnia for Europe.

MICHAEL ROSKIN

Lycoming College

Victory:

James Kurth's very interesting piece in the Summer 2000 issue ("The American Way of Victory: A Twentieth-Century Trilogy") demonstrates how difficult it is to write about great power relations. The author must understand economics, domestic politics of the powers, and their interactions. In spite of many valid points, Kurth doesn't succeed on the economic side. The Great Depression in the United States was caused by the U.S. Federal Reserve actions that produced a collapse of the money supply. This has been demonstrated by Milton Friedman's Nobel Prize-winning work. We exported, not imported, this disaster. England did not grow slowly before the First World War because of foreign investment. Slow growth in England came out of deep economic and societal problems. The high level of foreign investment was stimulated by lower returns on investment in England as a result of these problems.

Finally, and most important, China does not have the choice of remaining as it is now politically and economically if it wants to be a prosperous nation in the twenty-first century. The notion that China will stay as it is, and continue to grow rapidly and thus became a real threat to the United States, shows a misunderstanding as to why communism fell. It fell because its economic system had become such a failure that China, Russia and others were faced with economic retrogression and perhaps collapse if they did not abolish it. China's growth since Mao died has continually run into near crises that have only been avoided by further reforms, further opening to markets and private property. These economic reforms will require political changes as well. The genuinely free markets and secure private property China will need to maintain rapid growth are inconsistent with a one-party state. China will be forced to go democratic to maintain economic growth. It is unlikely that a democratic China with a market eco nomy will find enmity to the United States in its interest.

DANIEL LANDAU

Cheshire, CT

James Kurth's article in your most recent issue is a concise and insightful look at the American century. His ability to analyze the post-World War II geopolitical system as an integration of economic and military incentives is beyond reproach.

There is, however, a major flaw in his prediction pertaining to the political climate in East Asia. Kurth drastically overestimates both the military and economic potential of China in the first half of the twenty-first century. According to 1994 estimates, China is still primarily an agrarian economy. It is largely uneducated and lacks significant nationwide infrastructure. The next fifty years for China will be predominantly inward looking as it copes with its far-reaching social burdens (for example, the elderly poor, significant government debt, the failing public sector).