Missed connections

National Interest, The, May-June, 2007 by Alexey K. Pushkov

OBVIOUSLY, THE level of trust between Moscow and Washington is quite low these days. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently noted that Russia is not "doomed" to end up in a confrontation with America. He nonetheless enumerated at least ten key areas where Russian interests are at odds with the United States' positions, ranging from the deployment of the ABM system in Europe to the fate of Kosovo. So, where do we go from here?

The idea of strategic partnership with the United States has significantly less support these days in Moscow than just a few years ago. And this situation is not going to change, at least not before the presidential elections in the United States. In all the areas where Russia and America interact, from European security to Iran, Russians now believe that the United States wants Russian support without being prepared to give anything substantial in return.

The recent effort by the Bush Administration to better explain U.S. policies is bound to fall flat. Visits by high U.S. officials to Moscow, like National Security Advisor Steve Hadley's talks with Putin in February, will have no impact unless Washington is prepared to listen to Russian concerns and act accordingly. But how likely is that? Let's be blunt. Moscow will not support U.S. military strikes against Iran should that decision be taken only in Washington. It would be equally meaningless to expect that the United States withdraw support from a pro-American and pro-NATO Ukrainian leader simply because that would please MOSCOW.

There is still hope for a hard-headed partnership--without illusions--in some key areas where both sides have a commonality of interests--such as coping with non-proliferation or combating nuclear terrorism. Neither the United States nor Russia, for example, is interested in a nuclear-armed Iran or witnessing a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Putin has not dropped the idea of partnership with the United States altogether, but he has definitely moved away from some of the more grandiose proposals in favor of a much more limited arrangement. Since he took office, Russia's power has recovered. Not only is Russia in the leading position in terms of exporting energy, the country has accumulated $400 billion in gold and currency reserves (which puts Russia in third place after Japan and China). All of this contributes to a new feeling of self-sufficiency that had been absent 15 years ago. In fact, Russia is now much more likely to see itself evolving into an independent center of global power--and indeed many feel Russia has no other choice. A partnership with the United States that translates into a one-way street, with Russia acting as a partner while Washington is at liberty to pursue its own agenda, and with no consideration for Russian concerns, is something Moscow will not put up with any more. Russia has no prospects for becoming a member either of NATO or of the European Union, and the meaningless NATO-Russia Council is no longer sufficient to salvage that decaying relationship.