Production Of New Domestics' Vehicles On The Rise - North American light vehicles production forecasts for 2000 model year - Brief Article

Automotive Industries, Dec, 2000 by Lindsay Brooke

North American OEMs will produce approximately 17.3 million light vehicles for the 2000 model year. The traditional Big Three (Daimler-Chrysler, Ford and General Motors) will account for 79 percent of that production, while new domestics (BMW, CAMI, Honda, Renault/Nissan, Subaru-Isuzu, Toyota and Volkswagen) will take the remaining 21 percent. Things change, however, in 2005. Projections show a dramatic influx of new programs and plants will increase the new domestics' share dramatically.

By 2005, new domestics will churn Out 27 percent of the 16.9 million light vehicles produced in North America. Production volume will increase from 3.6 million units to 4.6 million units. Some of the growth comes from the old "import substitution" strategy--i.e. building where you sell. The shift of Lexus RX300 production to North America in 2002 is an example.

Although production growth (via import substitution) is intriguing, the real story is that most of the new volume is targeting the light truck segment.

Between 2000 and 2005 the Germans (BMW and Volkswagen) and Japanese will increase light truck production 82 percent, from 1.0 million to 1.9 million units. Car production will also jump, but not as significantly, from 31 percent of the share (2.6 million units) to 39 percent (2.7 million units) New entrants will include (or have already included) Toyota Sequoia, a Toyota small SUV; BMW X5; Nissan full-size pickup; Honda and Acura SUVs; and the next Nissan Quest minivan.