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Automotive Industries, Feb, 2001 by Ron Harbour

Accurately gauging reaction to a concept vehicle, then planning the right level of plant capacity for it, can be a giant gamble.

One of the best features of every auto show is the concept vehicles each automaker showcases to the public. It was no different at the recent North American International Auto Show in Detroit. But while the public may be drawn to Ford Motor Co.'s beautiful Forty-Nine coupe or DaimlerChrysler's muscular Dodge Super8 Hemi because of the cars' unique styling, I often view them from a very different perspective -- the world of automotive manufacturing. When I check out a concept vehicle on the show stand, I often find myself evaluating what it will take to put it into production.

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While walking the floor of Detroit's Cobo Center, for example, I wondered if the Jeep Willys could really be produced with a one-piece plastic body, or whether it would make more sense to go with another material. I estimated how close the latest Nissan Z and Mazda RX-8 sports car concepts are to production, given their level of body-panel and interior development. And as I studied the small Chevy Salsa pickup and the VW Microbus, I wondered whether either of them will see the inside of a North American assembly plant.

I thought about which exterior designs would have to be molded, because their shapes could not be stamped. And I tried to guess how many of these concepts were created from existing platforms.

Most of all, I thought about what changes would have to be made, and how simple and fast they could be implemented, to turn these vehicles into an easy-to-assemble reality. Today, automakers have more riding on their concepts than ever before. Because of more up-front manufacturing involvement, most of the concept vehicles I saw at the Detroit show are closer than ever to production capability.

Over a decade ago, Chrysler changed the way the entire industry uses concept vehicles, making them an important part of the company's vehicle-development process. That was a big change from when I was a kid. Back then, the "creative designs" that were showcased to the public had no basis in reality -- unless you believed we'd be living in the fantasy world of The Jetsons some day.

Automakers are still trying to show the public that they're planning for the future. They use shows to find out what customers and industry critics think, and to see which of their ideas are worth putting into production. Or they use the shows to fine-tune concepts that are already destined for reality. Today, it doesn't make sense to introduce any show vehicle that cannot, with some modifications, be manufactured.

However, there is a tricky line that automakers must walk when they introduce any concept. It is the line between accurately gauging the public's reaction to a concept, and then planning the right level of production capacity to meet demand. Chrysler, for example, rolled the dice on its radical 1990s Ram truck concept and the production version was a smash hit. On the PT Cruiser, however, Chrysler underestimated the concept car's impact. Now it's scrambling for more production capacity to meet greater-than-expected demand.

General Motors Corp. wishes it had the PT's capacity woes with its Pontiac Aztek When it was first shown as a concept car, the Aztek received high marks for its interior package but low grades for its exterior design. The Aztek's "boldly aggressive exterior" remained mostly intact by the time the vehicle reached the assembly plant. It may have succeeded as a niche vehicle, but has not fared well in full production.

With the Aztek, GM failed to guess right about public tastes. Admittedly, turning concepts into reality is still an art, not a science. But the company did succeed in quickly turning a bold design into a marketable vehicle. That's why manufacturers will continue to showcase concept vehicles -- and why I believe concept cars are just about the best part of any auto show.

RON HARBOUR is president of Harbour and Associates, manufacturing consultants in Troy, Mich.

Automotive Industry

2001 Ad

Automotive Industries, Feb, 2001 by Ron Harbour

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