Japan leads the hybrid charge: Toyota alone is on track to sell 300,000 hybrid-electrics worldwide in 2005, as suppliers slash hybrid systems costs - Brief Article - Statistical Data Included

Automotive Industries, Feb, 2002

Were you one of the skeptics who sneered at Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Co. when they introduced their gasoline-electric cars two years ago? Don't look now, but 2003 promises to be a watershed year for hybrid-electrics. With Toyota taking the lead, Japanese automakers are expected to introduce between 10 and 15 new models, driving up the year's sales to more than 100,000 units.

Toyota itself is scheduled to introduce 10 new models incorporating a range of hybrid systems, from the motor-assist and integrated starter generator on the Crown sedan and Estima van to the dual-power unit (battery/motor and gasoline engine) on the Prius sedan.

Fueled by this flurry of hybrid-model development, Toyota plans to sell 300,000 hybrids worldwide in 2005, up from roughly 30,000 last year. Assuming half of sales will be in Japan, that would represent 10 percent of Toyota's domestic business.

Against this backdrop, the Japanese government's goal is to have 2 million hybrids on the road by 2010. Industry analysts feel this level can be achieved only through greater usage of 42-volt motor-assist systems. To this end, Toyota estimates that 90 percent of all cars sold by 2020 will be hybrids incorporating spark-ignition and diesel engines. The remaining 10 percent will be a combination of fuel cells, CNG/LPG and other powerplants.

Meanwhile Honda. with the launch of the hybrid Civic in December, has taken its hybrid program to a new stage by offering its integrated motor assist (IMA) system on a mass-market car. Unlike Toyota, Honda has not announced a midterm sales target; however, the automaker expects hybrid Civic sales to be five times greater than those of Insight. Thus, yearly turnover could reach 30,000 units when sales begin overseas, mainly in the U.S. Added to this, the company appears to be readying several new launches based on the line-up of concept hybrids unveiled at the Tokyo Motor Show last autumn.

Nissan's Alternative Path

Other Japanese automakers are waiting for system costs to come down. And suppliers are making progress. Aisin AW and Denso Corp., both Toyota affiliates, aim to cut hybrid component and systems costs by as much as two-thirds by 2005 - from $4,600 to $1,920 ([yen]600,000 to [yen]250,000) for Aisin's dual-power system being developed for Ford Motor Co.'s 2003 Escape, and $1,150 to $384 ([yen]150,000 to [yen]50,000) for Denso's integrated starter-generator (ISG) fitted on the Toyota Crown.

Mazda Motor Corp.'s and Mitsubishi Motors' hybrid programs are linked to their respective partners, Ford and DaimlerChrysler, while Dalhatsu Motor and Fuji Heavy Industries, which unveiled motor-assisted mini-hybrids at the Tokyo show, will concentrate on niches.

Mazda's ISG system, installed on the MX-Sport Tourer concept car, is expected to appear on a hybrid before 2005, though management says it won't be able to mass-produce one until 2010 (Mazda defines mass production as 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, or 60,000 to 120,000 per year, on a global basis). And Mitsubishi, having completed development of an integrated starter-alternator hybrid system mated to a 1.1L direct-injection gasoline engine, says timing of a launch will depend on its "alliance" partner, DaimlerChrysler.

Nissan Motor Co. is taking a different route. It is focusing on fuel injection and catalyst technologies. The company, which sold 50 Tino hybrids in fiscal 2000, has put the program on hold as it waits for costs to come down. Instead, management will concentrate on J-ULEV engines (S-ULEV in the U.S.).

Nissan plans to equip 80 percent of its Japan-market cars with J-ULEV technology by March 2003. Management claims that 11 of the 15 models introduced since August 2000 (starting with the Bluebird Sylphy) will be equipped with J-ULEV engines. That totals roughly 730,000 units. The 20 percent that will not be powered by J-ULEV engines include direct-injection diesels. (J-ULEV reduces emissions 75 percent below 2000 exhaust emission standards to 0.02 gram per km for hydrocarbons and NOx.)

In addition, Nissan plans to introduce a belt-type CVT paired with a larger-than-3.0L engine in 2002. This will give Nissan a belt-type CVT range from 1.0L (for the March/Micra) to 3.0L (for a still unspecified vehicle). Nissan claims that a fuel savings of 10 percent can be achieved with CVTs. In fiscal 2001,12 percent of Nissan cars were fitted with CVTs. By 2005, the company expects to install CVTs on 50 percent of its cars.

2003 will also see the first commercialized Toyota fuel-cell hybrid vehicle. The model, a variation of the Kluger V SUV (Highlander), will be produced in limited volume of around 50 units.

A senior research executive says the company will start mass-producing fuel cell vehicles around 2010, at which time production volumes will be around 2,000 units per month -- similar to second-year Prius levels. He adds that in 2010 the Japanese government projects that 50,000 fuel cell vehicles will be operation; the total is expected to rise to 5 million in 2020.