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Automotive Industry

Gearing Up For the Future

Automotive Industries, June, 1999 by Marjorie Sorge

The hottest trend in transmissions over the next three years will be in five-speed automatics. And continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) are poised for explosive growth soon after. A recently released study, Global Powertrain Strategies, by Autofacts, a division of PricewaterhouseCoopers, predicts global production of five-speed automatics will more than double by 2002 to about 2 million units.

While five-speeds used to be very expensive, recent breakthroughs in engineering cut the cost of the gearbox while maintaining performance and fuel economy.

CVTs are on the cusp of major growth thanks to electronic controls and push belts. Until recently, belt-type CVTs could only be mated to engines up to 1.5L, and CVTs were not robust enough to handle more than 200 lb.-ft, of torque, limiting them to sub-1.5L engines. Now a new belt design by Van Doorne's Transmissie b.v. raised the threshold. A CVT was recently tested on a Ford 3.0L V-6 Taurus. Ford has a very active CVT program thanks in part to a joint venture with German transmission maker, ZF, which will build CVTs at the automaker's Batavia, Ohio, plant.

Meanwhile, the industry will demand fewer six-speed manuals in three years. Never destined to be a big volume product, the six-speeds were used in vehicles like the Chevy Corvette, Dodge Viper and BMW 850i to squeeze better fuel economy out of larger engines. Today Mercedes Smart Car uses 100,000 M6s a year. The second highest user, however, is Ford's big trucks, the F-250 and F-350.

[GRAPH OMITTED]

Global Transmissions by Transmission Type LIGHT VEHICLE CONSUMPTION BY REGION

CALENDAR               VOLUME
YEAR
           AUTOMATIC      MANUAL       CVT

1997       22,094,000   26,464,000   276,000
1998       21,830,000   26,509,000   295,000
1999       22,242,000   27,239,000   312,000
2000       23,107,000   28,296,000   356,000
2001       23,732,000   29,459,000   382,000
2002       24,065,000   30,192,000   449,000

All data: AUTOFACTS Group, a division of PricewaterhouseCoopers

Automotive Industry

Gearing Up For the Future

Automotive Industries, June, 1999 by Marjorie Sorge

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