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Automotive Industry

Technology by Stealth - innovations in the automobile industry - Brief Article

Automotive Industries, Sept, 2000 by Kevin Mann

There are so many new technologies available to automakers, it is difficult to keep track. Yet there is also little certainty that the market is ready for many of them.

Case in point: the basic controls in vehicles -- the gearshift lever, column-shifter, brake, clutch, accelerator pedal, and steering wheel -- have all been with us since the industry's birth. According to some OEM projections, they may not be around much longer. But how quickly will customers accept the technologies that suppliers and automakers are preparing as their replacements?

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How closely do consumer attitudes and opinions for CVT transmissions, for example, agree with the latest industry forecasts for CVT implementation? (See chart below.) What about semi-automatic transmissions, computer-equipped cars, or steer-by-wire?

If history is any indication, in all of these cases it could be the OEM who's in for a shock.

The introduction of the semi-automatic gearbox with no clutch pedal by both Renault and Saab failed to impress the market. While both systems were technically competent, the consumer was just not ready for something different. So those techonologies were withdrawn from the market. Ford's fitment of CVTs to its cars in the early 1990s may have done more damage to the CVT's image than many realize. It was another case of technology too early and again, withdrawn from the market.

Consumers are often reluctant to accept change. Why? Audi was brave in their move to fit a CVT to a V-6 engine (with much fanfare) last year. But their eagerness to be first-to-market may backfire yet. The pioneering launch has been followed by a year of limited production with teething problems. No wonder the consumer is loath to take on these new technologies.

So what is the OEM to do? Providing technology "by stealth" may be the answer. The most significant, yet unspoken, aspect of the new Volvo S60 is its manual gearshift gate. No leather or rubber gaiter around the base of the lever; just a metallic housing, not unlike an automatic gate. Once the customer is "used to" its appearance, Volvo can change the transmission type (automated manual, etc.) without a shock to the consumer.

Sales of bi-fuelled vehicles in Europe are increasing very slowly, due predominantly to the rising cost of gasoline. However, station wagons fitted with extra gas tanks to take LPG or CNG are falling to reach 0.5 percent of a model's annual production. Could it be that customers don't like seeing a gas tank sitting in their car's cargo space? The Fiat Multipla, on the other hand, cleverly hides its extra gas tank in its sandwich floor construction. There is no lost cargo space and no gas tank to see. The solution results in a staggering 21 percent of Multipla production being bi-fuelled. Stealth, indeed.

It's not that the consumer isn't ready to change. It just seems he doesn't want it thrust in his face without thought. While General Motors' EV1 electric car was a masterpiece of technology, it was just a step too far. The Honda Insight and Toyota Prius, however, selling by the thousands, have all the EV1's benefits without its perceived disadvantages.

Being clever about introducing new technology may be as challenging as developing the technology itself. The industry is only a generation of cars away from fuel cells, mass fitment of on-board computer screens, and aircraft fly-by-wire technology. The manufacturer, who actually thinks about how to introduce these and other new technologies, will be in a commanding position. Those that don't will fail, as has happened in the past.

Semi-Auto Trans Trend

While standard "H-gate" gear shift designs hold the majority of applications in Europe (80%), new designs such as paddles, maze-shifts, J-gate, and "Tiptronic-type" designs are emerging quickly. The main suppliers for these new designs are Cimar, Dura, Fico, Kongsberg, Lemforder, Magneti Marelli, and Sila.

Automotive Industry

Technology by Stealth - innovations in the automobile industry - Brief Article

Automotive Industries, Sept, 2000 by Kevin Mann

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