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Automotive Industry

Aluminum use to be limited in Japan during next decade - Asia Report - Auto aluminization rate to rise 10% by 2010 - International Pages - Statistical Data Included

Automotive Industries, Sept, 2002

Already boasting one of the world's lowest CAFE levels, the Japanese auto industry is putting its greatest emphasis on improving powertrains to meet future fuel consumption targets, as opposed to reducing rolling resistance and vehicle weight.

As a result, aluminum, though considered one of the most promising lightweight material alternatives, is not expected to substantially cut into the dominant share held by steel. Because of its versatility and lower cost, steel still accounts for more than 50 percent of total vehicle weight In contrast, aluminum's share is only 8 percent.

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By 2010, analysts expect the aluminization rate to increase only marginally to 10 percent at which time demand is projected to reach 1.5 million tons. This compares to last year's total of 1.2 million tons. Thus, average yearly growth will be only 2.5 percent, assuming vehicle production in Japan holds steady at around 10 million units.

In fiscal 2001, the largest Japanese aluminum consumer was Toyota followed by Nissan, Mitsubishi and Honda.

Here's how the Japanese OEM's will use aluminum during the next five to 10 years:

* Toyota plans to cut vehicle weight by more than one-fourth during the next decade. The main target area will be powertrains and specifically engine blocks. The company waited until 1997, years after Honda, to begin switching engine blocks for 4-cylinder gasoline engines to aluminum. It introduced the lightweight material for V6 and V8 engines in 1988 with the launch of the Celsior (then sold outside Japan as the Lexus LS400).

Management expects aluminum blocks to account for 50 percent of engine output in 2005, up from current levels estimated at 35 percent Penetration beyond 50 percent will depend on two factors--the continued popularity of diesel vehicles, particularly in Europe, and a decision to convert the 1.0L Vitz engine to aluminum. At present, all blocks for Toyota's lineup of diesel powerplants are made of cast iron, as is the block for the '1SZ' Vitz engine which employed cast iron to create more space under the hood.

Coinciding with the switch to aluminum blocks, Toyota will also convert cylinder heads to aluminum. The automaker already makes most transmission casings out of aluminum.

In other component areas, the company expects to turn to aluminum for the hoods and trunks of upscale cars like the Celsior and renamed LS430. Also, by 2005, management plans to adopt aluminum for 'closures' of upscale SUVs like the Land Cruiser and Harrier (RX430) mainly for weight reduction in the North American market Additionally, Toyota is considering the lightweight material for upscale sedans like the Crown Majesta and Crown Royal between 2005 and 2010. To date, only the sporty Soarer and Supra (sold overseas as the Lexus SC430) feature aluminum hoods.

* Nissan plans to adopt aluminum for trunks and hoods of cars slightly above the Primera class between 2005 and 2010 as well as upscale SUVs like the Terrano. Within the same timeframe, the automaker hopes to introduce the lightweight material for doors on the Cima, Q45, Gloria and Cedric and unspecified body panels on EVs including the tiny two-seater, the hypermini.

At present, the automaker only uses aluminum for hoods of the Cedric, Cima and Skyline and for the trunk of the Cima. By 2010, researchers think it might be possible to adopt aluminum body panels for cars built at Nissan Motor Manufacturing (UK) Ltd. Nissari is considering building the Primera with the aluminum panels.

Meanwhile, Nissan uses aluminum for an estimated 70 percent of gasoline engine blocks in its cars and nearly 100 percent of cylinder heads and transmission casings. In the suspension, the company currently uses aluminum only for control arms on the luxury Cima and for knuckles on the Skyline.

* Honda has been the Japanese industry leader in converting powertrain components to aluminum. In 1994, the company completed conversion of all gasoline engine blocks to aluminum, becoming the first in the industry to do so. No decision has been made on diesel engine blacks for Honda cars produced in Europe. These are currently produced by Isuzu Motors Polska in Tychey, Poland.

Researchers are not optimistic about adopting aluminum body panels for mainstream cars like the Accord and Civic. The reason: cost. They claim that aluminum is still twice as costly as steel. Moreover, Honda does not have a broad luxury car lineup like Toyota and Nissan, thus management believes there is little incentive for it to convert to aluminum in this price-inelastic segment

With the emergence of more stringent side impact standards, the automaker fears that the industry will come under increasing pressure to use even stronger materials in doors and door frames (specifically high tensile steel) and that this may actually add to vehicle weight.

Although management is pessimistic about adopting aluminum for its main model lineup, it believes the lightweight material has potential in specialty cars like the hybrid Insight or S2000 sports car. And demand in these niche segments will be not only for body panels but for suspension parts including control arms and knuckles.

Automotive Industry

Aluminum use to be limited in Japan during next decade - Asia Report - Auto aluminization rate to rise 10% by 2010 - International Pages - Statistical Data Included

Automotive Industries, Sept, 2002

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