Don't let the lights go out in 2000 - year 2000 computer problems, automobile industry - Editorial

Automotive Industries, March, 1998 by Marjorie Sorge

Picture this: With one click of the clock, life comes to a standstill. The lights go off. The water shuts off. Your magic bankcard stops working. Your warranties expire. Your paycheck isn't coming. Machinery stops. Your voicemail is gone. Software everywhere has died. For all intents and purposes, the world has come to a stop.

That's right. It's that final tick of the clock as the hand moves from 11:59 p.m., December 31, 1999, to midnight, January 1, 2000. Mind you, what I mentioned above only happens if companies haven't paid attention to the Year 2000 warnings and taken steps to debug their computers so they'll recognize the 00 as the year 2000, not 1900.

Taking those steps is very important to the auto industry, and the Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG) is leading the charge with the help of the U.S. Big Three. It's launched a major campaign to help the industry's 50,000 supplier sites ready their business for the turn of the century

Still, not everyone understands the depth of the problem. They know what must be done, but many just don't seem aware that time is running out.

There are legal implications for suppliers not meeting the deadline. If a supplier can't deliver product after the clock turns, customers could sue. After all, there was plenty of warning.

On a more personal level, corporate executives and members of the board of directors could also find themselves in court if their company isn't ready to meet the new millennium and it misses shipments or quality falters. The answer, of course, is for company leaders to give Year 2000 top priority.

This is serious stuff, and it gets even more serious. Most suppliers haven't budgeted funds to pay experts to debug their systems, or to upgrade to equipment that won't crash in 2000. Add that extra cost to companies already being squeezed with cost-cutting demands from the automakers and things can get pretty tough, pretty quick. While there are no hard figures on the cost of readying the auto industry for 2000, the Gartner Group, an association that monitors the computer industry, estimates the total bill for all industries globally could hit $300 to $600 billion.

That's not the only problem, however. There seem to be plenty of companies right now with the expertise to reconfigure computers, but their services are being snapped up fast. Suppliers that wait may find themselves willing to spend the bucks but unable to find the experts who can do it. As AIAG Executive Director Dick Simmons says, "You can't delay Job One on this one."

There is help. AIAG launched a major offensive with supplier surveys to determine how ready the suppliers are for Year 2000. It's available on the Internet so the Big Three can monitor progress. There are also tips on the Internet (www.aiag.org). The association is gathering data from as many companies as possible to share with others in the industry on a global basis. That should jump-start companies that haven't begun to make the necessary changes.

AIAG offers words of wisdom. If your company just bought a new system, don't assume that it is automatically Year 2000-resistant. Have it checked or the lights could go out. Says Simmons: "There is no magic bullet to fix this problem." The best advice is to do the computer analysis in 1998 and save 1999 for fixing things. Companies that fall behind should set priorities and make certain they've fixed the core systems that at least keep the operation running.

This might also be a good time for the U.S. industry to link arms with the Japanese and European makers to find solutions to the problem. This is a global dilemma. As Simmons says, "This is an opportunity to re-engineer systems, not just use the Band-Aid approach."

Marjorie Sorge is the editor-in-chief for Automotive Industries. You can reach her via e-mail at: msorge@chilton.net.