Magazines in the Year 2005 …and 2010 …and 2050

Folio: The Magazine for Magazine Management, Dec 1, 1999

A REVIEW OF WHERE MAGAZINES HAVE BEEN BEGS THE QUESTION: WHERE IS THE INDUSTRY GOING? HERE, SIX INDUSTRY LEADERS OFFER THEIR PERSPECTIVES.

JOHN BRANDT

EDITOR IN CHIEF

IndustryWeek & IW Growing Companies

I love the Web. But I'm not worried about the future of magazines.

1. For all the physical characteristics that most readers value--ease of use, portability, high-contrast text, full-resolution graphics, low power consumption (try zero), durability and flexibility--nothing beats the paper interface yet. And when it comes to using paper, nothing beats a high-quality magazine.

2. I can receive a magazine without knowing how to type: I still don't know how to type--and with magazines, I don't have to learn. And print publications still have the most convenient distribution system available: Once a week (or month, or quarter), they simply arrive. When I receive a well-edited, well-branded magazine, I read content that has been selected by talented editors trained to know what matters to me and, more important, what does not matter to me.

But what about software agents--reader profiles that seek out Web sources for only those topics that are important to me? Great idea, lousy execution. Current software agents can't anticipate our non-binary reading preferences with the same subtlety that a gifted editor (or team of editors) can.

Readers still love magazines, but will flirt ever more seriously with the Web. The smartest editors will marry readers to a well-defined editorial vision that takes advantage of both formats.

DOM ROSSI

VP, U.S. PUBLISHER

Reader's Digest

Selling as magazines have practiced it means death in the 21st century.

In the environment ahead, advertising agencies will increasingly drive down costs through Web sites that follow the priceline.com model: Name your price, and up pops a list of available inventory.

There will be a clear divide between winners and losers. Those magazines that continue to offer traditional reach and frequency on a CPM basis will be relegated to the online commodity trading market where margins vanish with the click of a mouse.

The winners will step well beyond the lavish entertainment, quick response and creative pricing that have to date comprised the magazine sales methodology. They will distinguish the real value of a magazine on the basis of audience involvement, not simply audience size. Winners will give advertisers a pre-emptive vision of their own threats and advantages, and a solution that builds sustainable relationships with consumers.

To do it, we will hire and train marketing sellers. Only marketing sellers will succeed in showing advertisers that they can, indeed, change their measurement criteria from audience reach (CPM) to audience involvement (or CPI) with key target audiences.

DANIEL MCCARTHY

CEO

Primedia Special Interest Publications

In my office at home, one shelf is filled with old magazines. They date from as early as the turn of the century, and they are talismans of the early days of our industry.

Leafing through these past issues, I reach a startling observation: Not much has changed in the last 100 years.

Copies of Ladies' Home Journal then and Ladies' Home Journal now have tremendous cosmetic differences, but share the same essence: They each existed to make women's lives more effective, easier and satisfying.

So, as I speculate on the future shape of the magazine, I'm reminded that their fundamental value remains the same, no matter what the era.

The next great revolution for magazines will be in terms of distribution, driven by advances in technology and our need in the industry to keep up with the competitive curve. The influencing technology will come in three forms: database, printing and network communications.

We've only just begun to plumb the potential of compiling and distributing databases of information. With the access we have to our reader customers, we will be able to more easily facilitate the relationship between sellers and buyers. And advances in print-on-demand technology promise to dramatically change distribution. Imagine an environment where magazines are printed at the wholesale level to align with recent buying patterns. Then imagine a market where consumers are able to download magazines and print them out at home. And then finally, a time when readers are able to customize their own magazines and select which segments are printed or not.

Ultimately, for us to be successful in the next generation of magazines, we need to recognize that magazines stand at the center of the media experience, and have the highest utility as a guide, a bridge or a filter to myriad information sources. As we continue to push the technology envelope within magazines, we have to focus on the different--sometimes frightening--ways that we can use technology to create a bridge between magazines, the Internet and other media.

SUSAN UNGARO

EDITOR IN CHIEF

Family Circle

Twenty-five years from now, my daughter, Christina, will be 30 and her life still won't be quite like that of the Jetson family, even though it will be the year 2025. Sure, she'll be driving a car with an automatic-pilot road map, but only because she wants to relax on the road, doing her makeup and reading her Family Circle. And she'll still be buying groceries, though her shopping list will come from a smart refrigerator that tells her what supplies are low. Her recipes will be customized automatically to the size and tastes of her family, thanks to her personalized recipe index from a magazine' s Web site.