Frankly, I'D Settle For Good News In '04

Folio: The Magazine for Magazine Management, Jan 1, 2003

Byline: CABLE NEUHAUS Editor-in-Chief cneuhaus@mediacentral.com

The other day, basically to force an artificial break in the more-or-less perpetual state of panic that characterizes my daily routine as editor of this magazine, I stopped by the desk of Sarah Gonser, who covers mergers and acquisitions for us, and asked for a briefing on her Forecast '03 story.

"What are your sources saying?" I asked. "Any predictions for improvement?"

"'Slow and steady,'" said Sarah, slowly and steadily.

"What did they tell you last December?"

"'Slow and steady ... slow and steady.' They've been telling me the same thing ever since I came to FOLIO: two years ago." She looked depressed.

On the other hand, David Pecker, who is on our cover this month, is a rather cheery guy. You may ask yourself why. What's to buoy the spirit of a magazine executive in this dreary print economy?

Well, Pecker, who runs American Media, Inc. (remember? - it's the tabloid publishing company that resides in the Florida building famously infected by anthrax) last month won a bidding war for Joe Weider's health and fitness magazines. He'll be paying $350 million for the privilege. And still, you ask, given that premium price tag, why is David Pecker smiling?

The answer lies in his vision of the future. Pecker is convinced that we are rapidly emerging from the recession that has gripped our industry for the last couple of years. When we spoke, he was giddily enthusiastic. This is a guy who formerly ran Hachette, so he knows a thing or two about this business. And he predicts that, absent a war, our industry is a sure thing for 2003.

Me, I'm not so confident - partly, I think, because it's in my nature to embrace gloom (although not to celebrate it). Things in mag publishing have been bad for so long, what really good evidence is there that they're going to get better this year? Do you read the papers? Have you noticed how your favorite magazines are lots thinner than your morning toast? Several weeks ago, as I stood before a newsstand in Manhattan, I scanned the December covers of some usually wonderful mags. What I saw - or, I should say, didn't see - told me a lot about how these titles hobbled into their final issue of the year. Squeezed by depleted budgets, their covers were visually impoverished, clearly done on a dime.

As 2003 begins, expect better covers. Hope for peace. Wish for consumer confidence. Spread the word that magazines continue to be a uniquely effective medium.

I will do all these things. I will also cling to the belief that our biz isn't likely to get significantly healthier until 2004. In the meantime, FOLIO:'s special Forecast '03 package should help us all survive as best we can during these still-tough times.