Time For A Mag Upfront?

Folio: The Magazine for Magazine Management, June 1, 2003 by Joe Mandese, Susan Thea Posnock

Byline: JOE MANDESE AND SUSAN THEA POSNOCK

Magazine publishers may be drooling over the money that advertisers committed last month during the glitzy television upfront, but if they're figuring it bodes well for the print industry, they're figuring wrong.

The so-called upfront - the ad-booking frenzy that occurs when networks trot out their shows (or potential shows) for the upcoming season - has historically been a big deal in the TV community. But many also look at the spending (or lack thereof) as a barometer for the rest of the media world. A solid upfront season, the thinking goes, means advertisers have money to spend and will be equally generous with other media.

But that theory may be seriously flawed. A Folio: analysis of ad-spending growth rates, compared to the upfront growth rates for the past 16 years, provides some evidence that the upfront is in fact a poor bellwether for magazines. (See chart on page 21.) In looking at years where upfronts had double-digit growth, the average growth rate for magazines was just 4.2 percent during the next full calendar year. One year, in fact, it decreased by 10.3 percent.

The TV upfront "has absolutely zero impact" on the magazine industry, says Jon Mandel, co-CEO and chief negotiating officer of Mediacom, the giant New York-based media planning and buying company.

But if you want to read tea leaves, says Mandel, then a strong upfront season might actually be a bad sign of what's to come for magazines. If media buyers are sinking the bulk of their budgets into TV, that leaves less for print.

A look at the numbers reveals that, indeed, the best magazine growth years, 1989 and 1997, corresponded to weak upfronts in the prior year.

So which way will things go in '03? Predictions were that the upfront market would be strong. An early read by Morgan Anderson Consulting indicated that of the top 100 advertisers, 63 percent planned to spend more on TV in 2003.

If there really is no correlation, then the next question is, can publishers create their own buying frenzy with an upfront season for magazines? A few major fixes must happen first, say media buyers. The print industry has a lack of adequate research, it's overpriced in terms of cost per thousand, and it is frustratingly inflexible. These factors not only make magazines less attractive to advertisers, say buyers, but also make it near impossible to create a true upfront atmosphere for the medium.

A few contend, however, that there is already good, if underused, research on magazines. And there is indeed hope for a legitimate, advanced buying season for print media. "Magazine media planning is done separately from television planning, but if they were done together, then there would be a greater impact," says Steve Greenberger, senior vice president and director of print media at Zenith Media Services. "There may in fact be a growth of interest in creating a magazine upfront."

Print accumulation data from MRI might help, says Greenberger. "With the tools and research that are available today on magazine audiences by week, and how they accumulate over the life of the issue, there is an ability to seriously examine magazine audiences as ratings points," he contends.

No amount of research will make that happen, believes Michael Neiss, executive vice president and managing media director with Lowe. Though the television upfront is based on the theory that there is finite ad space in network TV, "there is," he says, "an infinite supply of magazine inventory."

According to marketing and media consultant Valerie Muller, formerly senior vice president of print services for Mediacom, magazines have failed to make their inventory precious, as television has done. "There are certain issues that publishers could sell out if they set a book size, but there's this whole rat race of having the biggest issue ever," she says.

Still, both Muller and Greenberger remain hopeful that magazines can evolve toward an upfront - or, alternatively, at least manage to attract more attention during TV-planning season as research and technology improve the practicality and accountability of the magazine buy. One positive sign that advertisers are willing to listen is this month's Print Advertising Forum, being presented by the Association of National Advertisers. Additionally, the Magazine Publishers of America can always be counted on to beat the drums for glossies, most recently with the "Magazines Make a Difference" campaign, a sweepstakes that targets agency media executives and clients.

"I continue to believe that [a magazine upfront] is possible, and I've had isolated conversations with both sides that see the benefit," Muller says. "But everyone is a little gun-shy to be the first." Adds Greenberger: "[Print and television] would have to be planned at the same time, and the buyers would have to hit the street at the same time. The only way that would happen is if the tools and the data mimicked each other a lot more than they do today."