New technology to change the face of publishing; electronic products to supplant some print, GAMIS study reports

Folio: The Magazine for Magazine Management, Feb, 1989 by Liza Frenette

New technology to change the face of publishing * Arlington, Va.--As technology moves at lightning speed through publishing, electronic media will displace more and more printed media during the next 20 years, according to a study commissioned by the Graphic Arts Marketing Information Service (GAMIS).

The percentage of print products displaced by electronic substitutes should increase from about 2 percent in 1996 to more than 7 percent in 2006. The print volume lost to electronic media by then is estimated to be nearly $20 billion, the survey states.

New products will include electronic books, remote computing services, voice storage, consumer videotex, paperless management information systems, and demand printing. Such products will feature refinements magazines can't offer: access speed, interactive capabilities, display options and communication flexibility.

Despite these prospects for print, "the primary beneficiary of future technologies will be the publisher," promises the report. Publishers, the report states, will be able to use electronic technology to increase quality control, reduce editorial and production costs, and publish in a variety of media to serve more focused market niches better.

"The benefits from automated typesetting and the challenge of television during the past few decades will seem insignificant compared to the impact of future electronic developments," the report reads.

Pre-press improvements

One boon for publishers will be speech processing. In 10 to 20 years, the report states, speech encoding systems, which can transpose speech directly to digital form, will be used to process input for print documents. "The possible impact is far-reaching, not only in pre-press, but in the entire creative process," the report says.

Speech processing could also mean that simple information and internal communications will probably switch from print to voice storage and audio-text information systems. Furthermore, publishers could use optical storage products for reference material, instructional information and local databases, the report says.

The study also points out that image processing technology will eventually enable publishers to do much of their own pre-press work; commercial imaging devices will be of graphic arts quality. Printers, especially those who provide pre-press, can expect competition from their own customers and from larger printing companies that now serve other markets.

Cost savings

Much of the technology, too, will create cost savings, leading to a 10 percent to 20 percent reduction in the printer's cost of goods that are sold in the next 10 to 15 years.

Integrated chips, for example, should decline in cost by about 90 percent. Use of microprocessors and other chips will reduce costs and expand capabilities of digital typesetters, color scanners, web registration control systems, press operator controls, computer-driven bindery and imprinting equipment. The chips will also be used to create computer-controlled publishing systems, laser printers and electronic books.

Other new technologies will enhance image processing, improve operating controls throughout the plant and automate paper handling. The potential also exists to link publishers electronically to the typesetter and printer in layout and proofing decisions.

Large printers will have the best opportunity to exploit the industry change, the report states. their greater financial resources can help them add customer communication linkages and related pre-press services to become computer time-sharing firms.

Will trade shops be needed?

The trade shop's future, on the other hand, will depend on its ability to redefine its role as a computerized text and graphics processing time-sharing business. Because publisher and printer will need to be linked for quality control, both will probably reconsider the need for a trade service supplier.

All printers will need to plan ahead, something the study says they are not generally known to do. They will also need to review other technologies periodically.