Holiday '96: merry … but not very - Christmas retail sales forecast

Discount Store News, Nov 4, 1996 by Robert Scally

Beemer and Rosenbaum agree that there's a good chance that consumers will continue to pinch pennies as they have for the past two Christmas seasons. Both analysts said that it is highly likely that big markdowns will start before Thanksgiving this year.

The election effect may also not materialize. And even if post-election consumer optimism boosts spending, there is nothing to say that bargain hunting and price cutting by retailers won't diminish the bottom line, Rosenbaum said.

Beemer said that he doubts retailers will have the discipline to hold the line on prices.

Retailers in general may be in better shape to handle another down year than they were last year, according to the National Retail Federation's Retail Sales Outlook.

Consumers demand and confidence have steadily been increasing through the year compared with last year when consumer demand declined through the year and bottomed out at Christmas. according to the NRF study.

The NRF is anticipating less promotional activity and panic discounting this year and noted that retailers have been containing costs and reducing inventory to improve inventory-to-sales ratios during the past year.

  Holiday sales gains
       since '86
               % chg. from
Year          previous year
1995              2.87%
1994              7.42
1993              7.33
1992              7.66
1991              0.44
1990              3.35
1989              4.49
1988              9.51
1987              5.63
1986              6.51
Source: National Retail Federation