Chains merry, but guarded about holiday toy sales

Discount Store News, Nov 15, 1993

The bells of Christmas are beginning to jingle for the nation's toy retailers and so far the list of hot sellers is very short.

Jurassic Park and the dinosaur category, Aladdin, Talking Barney, miniature game sets such as Kenner's Littlest Pet Shop and Mattel's Mighty Max, construction toys, and video games are leading the business.

After Thanksgiving, many toy retailers and vendors expect that a few of the television dolls will gain momentum, as will board games, particularly such classics as Monopoly and Trouble.

Overall, retailers are optimistic about Christmas 1993, but extremely guarded about how good sales will be. They also are reluctant to identify potential winners.

"Nothing is really screaming out of the store, said Tony Val, divisional vp, hard lines, Kmart. However, the season is still early and he's sure momentum will intensify as the holiday nears.

Currently, Val said strong sales data are being collected on Talking Barney, X-Men, Power Rangers, Jurassic Park and the dinosaur category, including Barney, and construction toys, led by Lego. Also showing well are Lincoln Logs, Aladdin, Toby Terrier, plush and girls' activity sets, especially Kenner's EZ 2 Do program. Video games, particularly hand-held items, are strong.

Another retailer, who asked to remain anonymous, said the video game business is "explosive, running wild," but noted the erosion of margin in this category.

This retailer, like Val, said that there is an early weakness in TV dolls and that the home run will be the result of the fourth quarter TV commercials. Other strong performers at this chain include Talking Barney, construction toys, electronic learning aids, and arts and crafts, plus basic Fisher-Price toys such as the new folding dollhouse, redesigned kitchen and the tournament table, a three-year winner.

At Hills, the early winners include Nintendo and Sega video games, new offwrings by Kenner like the Littlest Pet Shop and the limited edition hockey figures, classic games, Jurassic Park, Power Rangers, and Western Barbie, said Michael Bozic, president and chief executive. Exactly how Christmas 1993 will end up Bozic was reluctant to say, especially after the chain's last two outstanding holiday seasons.

"I don't think there is a Cabbage Patch this year," he noted, a reference to the lack of a blockbuster toy.

Another retailer said that his overall business has been slow. "We've seen nothing that has knocked us for a loop. But there are some bright spots," he said, noting such items as Lego, Mega Blocks, My Size Barbie, electronic learning aids, G.I. Joe and Polly Pockets.

Tough economic conditions are a critical factor in this year's toy sales and exactly what the outcome will be is still unknown. But as in other lean years, parents will purchase toys for their children. The question becomes, "What will they buy and how much will they spend?"

Fred Kask, toy buyer for Stuarts, the 20-unit chain based in Franklin, Mass., admitted the toy business is tough for his Northeast-based chain. But he is optimistic. "I think there is disposable income out there that hasn't been spent that will be spent in November and December. Christmas is coming later and later every year."

This year, Kask is predicting that Creepy Crawlers, Talking Barney, puzzles, board games, Littlest Pet Shop, Star Trek figures, Mighty Max, and Batman will do well, as will Turtles and a slew of TV dolls including Fuss N' Giggles Triplets and Sally Secrets by Mattel, Love and Care Baby and My First Cobbage Patch by Hasbro, Kenner's Baby Check-Up, Newborn Baby Alive and Baby Needs Me.

Marianne Szymanski, president of Toy Tips, a toy testing and research organization in Milwaukee, released a list of potential winners for Christmas 1993. It includes McDonald's Play Set by Mattel, Math Safari by Educational Insights, Creativity For Kids' Strike Up the Band, Little Tikes' recycling truck, Fisher-Price's Bubble Blower, Parker Brothers' Nardvark plus Howdy the Horse by Mattel and Baby Cries So Real by Hasbro's Cabbage Patch.

Here's a list of toys a few manufacturers identified as potentially strong performers for '93:

* Today's Kids: Rocking Rider Horse;

* Hasbro: Jurassic Park, G.I. Joe, Cabbage Patch and classic games like Monopoly;

* Little Tikes: Country Kitchen, Activity Garden; Soft Pony; the truck line;

* Mattel: McDonald's Happy Meal Magic Deluxe Playset; Happy Holidays, Paint 'N Dazzle, Twinkle Lights, My Size Barbie, Polly Pockets, and Inklings;

* Rose Art: Kewpie Dolls, Raggedy Ann & Andy, Xuxa;

* Ertl: Bumble Balls;

* Tiger Electronics: Toby Terrier, Deluxe Talk Boy, 2 Excell, Quiz Wiz;

* Lego: Dragon Masters, anniversity buckets.