IMRA: apparel will win holiday sales - International Mass Retailers Association

Discount Store News, Nov 21, 1994 by James Mammarella

WASHINGTON -- Apparel products will replace appliances and electronics as the biggest Holiday retail winners in 1994, according to a Gallup study commissioned by the International Mass Retailers Association and released Nov. 10.

The greatest spending increase in any merchandise category over Holiday 1993 will come in apparel, according to consumers. Mass merchant buyers, polled informally by IMRA, predicted the top apparel items sold at Holiday will include: outdoorsy items like flannel shirts, polar and brushed fleece tops, denim looks, thermal and henley tops, and licensed goods.

Three out of 10 consumers said they would spend more on apparel this Holiday than last year, and 14% said they would spend less, for a positive net effect of 16%.

Twenty-seven percent of consumers said they would spend more on toys this year, but 32% said they would spend less, for a net effect of minus 5%. Power Rangers, Barbie and The Lion King will be this year's big draws.

On recreation and sporting goods, 20% of consumers said they would spend more, but 28% said they would spend less, for a minus 8% net.

Hardware and home furnishings each scored a net of minus 28%; and spirits, confections and special gift packs scored minus 25%. Consumer electronics fared somewhat better, at a net effect of minus 14%.

Buyers said bright spots in home goods will be everything related to the "coffee culture:" bread and pasta makers, comforters, quilts and throws, and home test kits from cholesterol and diabetes monitors to radon, carbon monoxide and smoke detectors.

The top buyer picks in CE are portable ones--from Game Boys to cellular phones--and software, accessories and peripherals.

The results paralleled an earlier study by Leo J. Shapiro & Assoc., reported in DSN Nov. 7. Both surveys indicate that two-thirds of consumers plan to spend the same or more than they did in Holiday 1993.

IMRA president Robert Verdisco said discounters "will be in the best position to capture those new dollars." He pointed to the survey's age breakout, which dramatically showed that the 18 to 34 age group was the only segment with a higher percentage planning on spending more this Holiday--32% to 27%.

The age group results correlated with findings showing households with an income of less than $20,000 was the only segment with a higher percentage planning on spending more in 1994 vs. 1993, 17% to 12%.

Verdisco asserted that the national election results, which came after the survey was conducted, would lift consumer confidence and give retail spending a boost in months ahead. He said consumers expect the Republican-controlled 104th Congress to cut taxes and spur job creation by more laissez-faire business regulatory policies.

IMRA director for tax and budget issues Cecilia Adams told DSN that discounters are less likely to see a corporate tax-rate hike, a minimum wage boost, or employer-man-dated health care. She said the Targeted Jobs Tax Credit program now has better chances of renewal, and tax issues related to medical savings accounts should be resolved.

Mo Cain, IMRA vp legal and public affairs, said labor issues championed by Labor Secretary Robert Reich "will not go away; they will be repackaged" in welfare reform or economic competition legislation. Clinton-controlled regulatory agencies, in particular the National Labor Relations Board, OSHA, and the Consumer Product Safety Commission, are likely to step up enforcement actions.

Robin Lanier, IMRA vp, international trade, said if GATT fails in the lame duck Congressional session in December, its future, and that of the country of origin rules change affecting textile and apparel vendors, will depend on factors ranging from the fight for a capital gains tax cut to Sen. Robert Dole's 1996 Presidential campaign plans.