PCs get smaller, more powerful, and sold at mass market outlets - personal computers - Retailing for the New Millenium

Discount Store News, Dec 7, 1992 by Pete Hisey

They won't be attached to keyboards, won't sit on desks, won't be sold in computer specialty stores, and won't even be called computers. They will: fit into a shirt pocket, have the power of a Cray supercomputer, work on voice recognition, cost about $200, and be sold off a peg at Wal-Mart.

That, in short, is the personal computer of the year 2000. By that time, the entire computer superstore industry will be dead. Only the most technophobic will not have purchased a computer/assistant/communicator and sophisticated, multi-use digital tools will be as common at retail as the boombox is today.

Americans already have more computers around the house than they might suspect. Every Nintendo or Sega machine sold is a computer; the VCR programmer is a highly sophisticated software package disguised as a remote control; calculators, microwave ovens, word processors, and CD players all incorporate some of the functions and technologies of the computer to greater or lesser degrees of sophistication.

And that will be the trend in the future--various powerful computing devices that will be used for a variety of applications, from home security to accounting to communications to entertainment. They will be found in every room of the house and will be used by every member of the family.

Already, manufacturers like Franklin have produced products that are little more than stealth computers. Digital books and reference devices are now commonplace in retail stores and American homes. "I think that's the way that the computer industry will evolve," said Franklin president Stan Krangel. "The key is easy access to information, and inexpensive, function-specific products that merge computing, communications and consumer electronics" will eventually replace the desktop computer.

The key to the next generation of computing will be the development of extremely powerful megaflop chips, expected to hit the market by 1995, or earlier. C.J. Chang, president of a new computer company, Accutron said that the computer of the future "will almost be a toy, combining high power, virtual reality and advanced graphics capabilities."

Chips counted in megaflops (floating point operations) will be 10 times as fast as anything on the market today, with enormous memory capacity. "With 20 or 30 megaflops, voice recognition will be no problem," Chang said. "A Cray supercomputer has only 10 to 15 megaflops today."

The increased capacity will make real-time video communication possible, leading to a device not unlike "Star Trek's" pocket communicator. "Keep in mind that a chip is only 30 cents worth of semiconductor that is then sold for $500," Chang said. "When sources other than Intel come to market with advanced chips, the prices will plummet. And the chip is really the only expensive ingredient in a computer."

These new communications devices (and communication and arrangement of data, not its "computing," is really the point behind high technology) will create a profound change in the way Americans live. "The link between home and office is much closer now," noted Megatrends author James Naisbitt in a recent address. "For the first time in 200 years, more people are moving to rural areas. With the revolution in technology and telecommunications, you don't have to be a big company ... to be a player in the global economy."

The impact on the consumer could be enormous. With telecommuting commonplace, the American family could final itself with a corresponding increase in work productivity and in leisure time, as well. Cutting out the commute could pay off for employers as well, who won't have to maintain anything near the physical plant (office or factory space) of today.

Apple's Newton is generally regarded as the model for the future computer. Penbased, pocket-sized, and very powerful, the Newton and products like it will turn virtually any place into an office, communicating with office-based data bases via telephone lines, storing and organizing information in ways simply not possible on existing systems, and making the user far more productive and versatile.

At Comdex last month, Apple concentrated on its powerful models; to company, like many others, now seems to have settled on the Consumer Electronics Show as a more appropriate vehicle for its consumer products.

But John Cook, manager of consumer Macintosh marketing, noted that the Newton, augmented by a built-in cellular telephone and voice-based commands (or even data input) is probably the wave of the future.

"But I think we'll still see a home-based unit as well," he said. "there are simply too many uses for a computer that a hand-held unit can't deliver. The size of the screen, for instance, would limit the user."

However, that doesn't mean that the traditional box and monitor and breathe easy. "There are too many devices out there chasing too few dollars," he said. For instance, a $3,500 HDTV unit might be a hard sell, but a unit that includes a computer, fax machine and telecom devices might find a readier market.