The people speak - and they have good news for discounters - discount store industry

Discount Store News, Dec 6, 1993 by Dawn Wilensky

Several recently released studies confirm earlier predictions that when consumers make their holiday purchases thhis year, more of them will make them at discount stores than at the other traditional outlets (see DSN, Nov. 15, p. 1).

About 57% of shoppers said that they will be heading for discount stores rather than department stores, according to Deloitte & Touche's Retail Outlook Survey. Last year, only 44% of the survey's respondents said they would be shopping at discounters.

"Consumers are still cautious this year, but they are not planning to scrimp, which is good news for two reasons," said Alan L. Frank, partner-in-charge of the TRADE Retail & Distribution Services Group of Deloitte & Touche in Los Angeles. "This means that the important retail sector will get a much-needed boost. Just aas important, it signals that Americans have a fundamental optimism about the future."

Another study, the National Christmas Forecast conducted by Charleston, S.C.-based America Research Group, concluded that 45% of shoppers will do more shopping at discount stores than they did last year. Just 22% said they will do less shopping at discounters. In addition, half the shoppers said they plan to spend less time shopping warehouse clubs than last year, and 52% of consumers reported that they are less likely to shop at department stores than last year.

However, department stores were the outlet of choice among consumers polled by Atlanta-based Arthur Anderson. Nearly four out of five consumers indicated that department stores will be their primary shopping place for gifts this season.

"The popularity of department stores is a sign of their ability to identify and respond to their customers' needs by developing successful merchandising strategies," said Jay Scansaroli, managing partner for Arthur Anderson.

Nevertheless, 50% of consumers said they will also shop at discount stores this holiday season and another 42% indicated that they would shop at specialty stores.

Taubman Centers, which operates 19 regional shopping centers in 11 states, also has good news for specialty stores. After conducting a survey of 50 major national chains, Taubman Centers forecasted that speciality retailers will have a lot to celebrate this season.

Retailers surveyed by Taubman predicted a win-win holiday, with strong sales increases over last year. They also said they expect a freeze on price increases, and, in many cases, lower pricing, than 1992.

Most of these studies differ in some respects from the one released by Chicago-based marketing firm Leo J. Shapiro (DSN, Nov. 15 issue), which concluded that the upcoming holiday season will be a joyless one for retailers in general. While the study did report that consumers are more apt to shop at discount stores than they have been for the past three years, it also found that consumer confidence is plummeting due to job insecurity and rising taxes.

Another study, by Deloitte & Touche, predicted that individually, men will be outspending women by a considerable margin. Men said they plan to lighten their wallets by about $754 for gifts, while women consumers said they will spend about $544.

Finally, New York-based BKG Youth, a youth marketing research firm, has released a study that should help shoppers decide what to buy.

For the kids on everyone's shopping list, high-tech gifts would be in order, according to BKG's North Pole Poll. Four out of the top five items youngsters aged 7 to 13 said they will be asking for this year fell into the high-tech category.

It comes as no surprise that the most sought-after items among younger shoppers were video game systems. They were mentioned by 91% of those surveyed, followed by video games (75%), CD players (58%), and personal computers (56%). The Super Nintendo Entertainment System was the No. 1 choice, followed by the Sega Genesis in the video game category. Super Mario All-Stars ranked first in video games, followed by Mortal Kombat.

Rounding out the list was popular fashion items, placing fifth. In this category, 46% of kids surveyed said they'd like Levi's as their No. 1 choice, followed by Timberland boots and Doc Marten shoes.