Bracing for Clinton win, industry eyes other races; looks to Congress to blunt anti-business bills

Nation's Restaurant News, Sept 16, 1996 by Robin Lee Allen

WASHINGTON--After four years of jousting with Bill Clinton, the foodservice industry likes the idea of laying down its rapier with a less-adversarial Republican president.

However, given recent polls suggesting Clinton's lead over contender Bob Dole, industry members are instead limbering up to further defend bottom lines they fear will be knicked away by labor costs pushed up by new mandated employee benefits, like health care and flexible time.

"The health-care issue is far from over, and it's going to be driven by two factors," said Rick Berman, president of Berman & Co., a Washington, D.C., firm representing the political interests of 25 restaurant chains. "One is the demographic shifts in the country, including the aging population. and the other is the inability to deliver Medicaid and Medicare at current levels of funding. So you've got more demand and less supply. and a is the business likely target community."

While President Clinton already has appointed a new federal-health-care commission headed up by Cabinet members Donna Shalala and Robert Reich, industry watchdogs expect future attempts at health-care reform to take a less-monumental approach than that defeated two years ago. Clinton also has translated that lesson to other proposals, like flexible work schedules, which have been, as one industry member noted, "very cleverly disguised under the guise of family values."

Given operators' apprehensions that a second-term Clinton administration, freed from concerns of re-election, may unleash an increasingly liberal agenda, many now are focusing on the complexion of Congress.

"More important than the presidential election is the congressional side of it," said William C. Anton, chairman of Anton Airfood Inc., a Washington, D.C.-based airport concessionaire with 28 restaurants in six airports nationwide. "As far as the industry and the country is concerned, it looks like Clinton is going to win.

"So having the Republicans retain control of Congress is important to subvert a rash of anti-business legislation like that in [Clinton's] first two years."

Others also recalled industry-opposed initiatives like the Family and Medical Leave Act, which became law early in Clinton's term when Congress was Democratically controlled. The Republicans became the majority party following the elections in 1994.

"I'm really concerned that we keep the House and the administration divided," said Bruce C. Cotton, senior vice president of public affairs for Lexington, Ky.-based Long John Silver's Inc.

Cotton fears that if Democrats prevail in both branches of government, the business community will find itself bound with currently dormant regulations, like the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's proposed indoor-air quality rules. Those rules address the handling of cleaning chemicals commonly found in restaurants as well as secondhand smoke. In addition, he suggests that the federal minimum wage could be revisited in order to index it to inflation.

"If we ended up with a Democratic House and White House and a Republican Senate, then it would be a rough time for business people," Cotton said.

In an effort to keep the political scales in balance, industry trade groups like the National Restaurant Association and the National Council of Chain Restaurants have joined a watchdog coalition to hold off a moneyed offensive by unions to elect pro-union lawmakers to Congress. Union officials have said repeatedly they would spend 835 million in 70 targeted districts to get their people to Capitol Hill.

"As an organization, we take no position on presidential elections," said Terrie M. Dort, the NCCR's executive director. "We're going to be working with whatever president is elected and whatever Congress we are dealt to make our issues known."

However, she added "we are working with the coalition to make sure union money does not sweep in union candidates. We're supporting probusiness candidates, whether it's Blue Dog Democrats or Republicans." The Blue Dog Democrats are a group of more than 20 moderate-to-conservative House Democrats.

Similarly, the NRA does not involve itself with presidential races although officials there did point out vast differences between Clinton and Dole.

"Bob Dole has a long history of being a pro-business member of Congress," said Lee Culpepper, the NRA's director of federal relations. "Over the past four years since Clinton has been president, he and Bob Dole have disagreed on a number of issues. I would note a couple: Of course, healthcare reform, and the other would be litigation reform, which is just as important. When you get past that there's probably good and bad in both of their proposals."

Much of the good and the bad to be felt by business is likely to be determined more by the political climate than by the family living at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., Berman noted.

"With everyone from Dole to [Pat] Buchanan talking about corporate loopholes and restructuring the tax code, it may be political rhetoric, but it creates a dangerous environment for business," he said.