American Renaissance: Our Life at the Turn of the 21st Century

Nation's Restaurant News, Oct 22, 1990 by Michael Schrader

A rose-colored glance into the 21st century

AMERICAN RENAISSANCE: Our Life at the Turn of the 21st Century, Marvin Centron and Owen Davies, St. Martin's Press, 175 Fifth Ave., New York, N.Y. 10010, (212) 674-5151, 400 pages, $19.96.

Every age has had its prophets, and our age is no exception. Many who have gazed into the future have shaken their audience, who, like sinners in the hands of an angry God, have altered their lifestyles.

This book, however, is optimistic, almost as if the authors have taken a look at the future with a rose-colored crystal ball. It is a vision of an America we should anticipate eagerly. As the authors explain: "American Renaissance is a statement of hope. We firmly believe that anyone who looks clearly at the facts, unbiased by any partisan political agenda, must feel as unfashionable optimism about the future of our country in the decade to come."

Cetron has made a business of predicting trends, and he has a 95-percent success rate. Davies is a former editor with Omni magazine.

The scenario of the future is one of enormous and far-reaching changes. Juxtaposed with it is the book's incise, intelligent assessment of what has been happening in this less than perfect land since the fall of Camelot, with critical assessments of the administrations of the unheroic chiefs of state who have followed John Kennedy.

But wait! What looks like a downward spiral in every way is reversed so that by the year 2000 everything comes out all right. Exactly through what process we are never quite told. Just accept the fact that it will happen, or so Cetron seems to be saying.

Yes, there is light at the end of the millennium. It will be, Cetron forecasts, a land with a dominant middle class, and the schools will actually be doing what they are supposed to do, educate young minds, and drugs will be the escape of choice for a limited few.

The United States will be a lot bigger, because Canada will have joined us in the form of four more states. But the deficit will be a lot smaller. And the United States will have teamed up with Russia to police the world.

The medical picture, Cetron forecasts, will be one of amazing discoveries: gene therapy and the end of aging. AIDS, however, will have claimed 1.5 million American lives before it burns itself out and annihilates all those who are at risk.

Restaurateurs will be heartened by these forecasts: "In these last years of the twentieth century, the very large or very fancy restaurants where people go for special occasions will have to turn away customers. With more women working and both spouses often working overtime . . . with two incomes, they are earning more, and since the rest of the time they are either skipping lunch or grabbing a fast-food meal, they feel no qualms about indulging themselves."

And: "This entire business group - hotels, motels, and resorts; restaurants, travel and transportation; and so on - has been one of the most expansive sectors of the economy throughout the 1980s. We believe its best years lie ahead. . . . By 2000 one in four Americans will work for the hospitality industries."

There are some problems with the chronology of the forecasts. Cetron predicts that the two Germanies will be unified "around that time," i.e., 2000. It would seem that Cetron is a little behind schedule.

Moreover, the methodology of the forecasting seems to derive, not from the framework of inductive reasoning, but from intuitive processes on the part of the authors.

For example, in the chapter on the resurgence of the public schools, a few trends are examined, and then the forecast is extrapolated unscientifically. Here, evidently, we are dealing with the logic of dreams and vision. Cetron shows us a blueprint for America in the 21st century. Acceptance of it must be an act of faith.

Nevertheless, it's a very interesting book. If you care about the future, you will want to read it. But it will only be at the turn of the century that we assess the accuracy of these predictions.