Dairy market trends: private label cheese, healthful novelties perform well

Dairy Foods, Nov, 2003

Private label natural cheese in various forms is growing while many of the top 10 name brands are shrinking. Meanwhile, in the frozen novelty category, the most dramatic gains are coming from brands with a health or diet emphasis.

A look at the top 10 brands of natural cheese shows that private label natural grew by 12.8% in dollar sales and 15.8% in unit sales during the 52 weeks leading up to Sept. 7. Private label shredded cheese jumped 8.5% and 11.4% in dollar and unit sales respectively. These numbers, from Information Resources Inc., represent total U.S. supermarket, drug and mass merchandiser sales, not including Wal-Mart.

While private label cheese sales are up, leading brands from Kraft and Sargento lost a bit of ground during the same period, although none were down by more than 2.6% in the dollar column.

In the novelty aisle, sales were generally strong for the same period with overall dollar sales growing about 5%. But the real stars in novelties are Silhouette brand and Weight Watchers Smart Ones. As fairly new introductions, the numbers may be a bit of an anomaly, but they have grabbed some market share and are doing remarkably well. Obviously, guilt-free indulgence sells. Meanwhile, several other top brands slipped a bit during the period.

In the whole milk section of the dairy case sales are off slightly, as usual, but there has also been a lot of jockeying for position among the top vendors. Most of these are owned (in whole or in part) by Dean Foods, National Dairy or Dairy Farmers of America. The biggest winners were Oak Farms, a Dean brand based in Texas, and Horizon Organic, the major national organic milk brand that is now 100% owned by Dean.

Finally, a look at yogurt brands shows stronger growth in brands than in private label, and the strongest growth is in some of the most innovative, value-added products.

Dannon and Yoplait control all of the top brands, and among the fastest-growing brands are Dannon's Danimals and La Creme. Yoplait's regular brand performed well too, while Dannon's Light 'N' Fit lost some ground.

Top 10 Brands of Yogart and Yogurt Drinks

Brand                Dollar sales    % change    Unit sales    % change
                      (millions)     vs. yago    (millions)    vs. yago

Private Label             $358         5.8%          565          3.2%
Yoplait                   $329        18.1%          454         13.8%
Dannon                    $196         4.4%          238         11.1%
Dannon Light N
  Fit                     $185        -2.5%          200         -6.5%
Yoplait Light             $145         2.8%          213          1.9%
Yoplait Go Gurt           $126        -2.3%           46         -2.8%
Yoplait Trix               $95         3.0%           37          2.2%
Yoplait Custard
  Style                    $88         6.6%          128          4.8%
Dannon Danimals            $87        13.1%           41          9.2%
Dannon La Creme            $86        25.4%           40         24.3%
Total U.S. Yogurt       $2,741        10.5%        3,058          9.5%

For 52 weeks ended 9/07/03

Source. Information Resources Inc.

Top 10 Brands of Natural Cheese

Brand                Dollar sales    % change    Unit sales    % change
                      (millions)     vs. yago    (millions)    vs. yago

Private Label
  (Not Shredded)        $1,102        12.8%          467        15.8%
Private Label
  Shredded                $869         8.5%          358        11.4%
Kraft Shredded            $483        -1.5%          192        -1.2%
Kraft Natural
  (Not Shredded)          $283        -2.5%          121        -0.4%
Tillamook (Not
  Shredded)               $182         3.9%           39         2.5%
Kraft SS Grated           $145        -2.4%           44        -2.1%
Kraft Cracker-
  Barrel (Not
  Shredded)               $103         1.1%           33         1.2%
Sargento (Not
  Shredded)                $93        34.5%           33        30.1%
Sargento Shredded          $89        -1.7%           31        -1.6%
Sarg. Fancy
  Shredded                 $71        -2.6%           30        -4.3%
Total U.S Natural
  Cheese                $5,404         5.4%        2,030         6.5%

For 52 weeks ended 9/07/03

Source: Information Resources Inc.

Top 10 Brands of Frozen Novelties

Brand                Dollar sales    % change    Unit sales    % change
                      (millions)     vs. yago    (millions)    vs. yago

Private Label             $362         1.6%         136          0.0%
Klondike                  $177         3.2%          54          3.7%
Silhouette                $129        31.6%          28         31.6%
Nestle Drumstick          $120        -3.0%          31         -5.8%
Popsicle                  $106         6.1%          37          0.7%
Weight Watchers
  Smart Ones               $99        74.0%          24         57.0%
Carvel Frozen Ice
  Cream/Ice Milk           $74         2.2%           5          0.5%
Haagen Dazs                $51        -9.7%          16         -9.6%
Wells Blue Bunny           $46        -1.3%          16         -1.4%
Fudgesicle                 $45        -0.9%          16         -0.5%
Total U.S. Frozen
  Novelties             $2,479         5.1%         810          1.0%

For 52 weeks ended 9/07/03

Source: Information Resources Inc.

Top 10 Vendors of Whole Milk

Brand                Dollar sales    % change    Unit sales    % change
                      (millions)     vs. yago    (millions)    vs. yago

Private Label           $2,118        -4.0%          898        -0.7%
Milk Products
  LP *                     $60         4.1%           25         5.7%
Dean Foods Co.             $41        -1.8%           19        -0.5%
Parmalat USA
  Corp.                    $33        -6.8%           18        -3.8%
Horizon Organic
  Dairy (#)                $32        26.0%            9        24.9%
Land-O-Sun (#)             $32        -8.6%           14        -7.2%
Oak Farms (#)              $31        25.1%           13        26.9%
Garelick Farms 2           $30         0.9%           15         3.4%
Hiland Dairy (@)           $30         1.1%           14         2.6%
Mayfield
  Dairy (#)                $29       -15.9%           10       -14.2%
Total U.S. Whole
  Milk                  $3,178        -2.8%        1,367         0.3%

For 52 weeks ended 9/07/03

* part of National Dairy Holdings

(#) owned in whole or in part by Dean Foods

(@) partnership of Dairy Farmers of America and Prairie Farms

Source: Information Resources Inc.