Ice cream trends

Dairy Foods, July, 2002

The year 2001 was an expensive one for ice cream makers, and therefore for consumers. Not surprisingly, market data heading into 2002 reflected lower unit volume but significant gains in dollar sales. But more recent data shows gains in volume too.

Overall sales of ice cream and sherbet for the 52 weeks ended Jan. 27 totaled close to $4.7 billion, an increase of 4.9% according to Information Resources Inc. Volume sales dropped 1.6 % to 4.7 billion pints.

Half of the top 10 vendors of ice cream felt a decrease in volume sales for the 52-weeks ended Dec. 2, but nine of the 10 had higher dollar sales, IRI indicated.

Novelties looked even better than the overall ice cream segment, with dollar sales growth of 7.1% according to the International Dairy Foods Assn. More than $2.1 billion worth of novelties were sold in 2001 according to IDFA. The top ten vendors faired a bit better with novelties than with packed ice cream, showing overall gains by both volume and dollar sales.

Anecdotally, ice cream processors said the sluggish economy and Sept. 11 attacks had no chilling effect on ice cream sales. To the contrary, they said, ice cream may have benefited from its position as a comfort food and relatively inexpensive indulgence.

Early indicators point to a great 2002 for ice cream. According to IDFA's Ice Cream Market Research Report (1st Quarter 2002) ice cream volume versus a year ago grew four months in a row December through March.

The increased cost of ingredients led many ice cream companies to raise prices in 2001, but packaging, flavor and form innovations continued to drive growth in the ice cream segment. Licensed flavor packages continued to create national brands through regional processors. More than a half-dozen companies now market flavor packages that include formulation, branding, packaging and marketing support.

Geographic Sales of Ice Cream/Sherbet

               Dollar Sales  % change  Pint Sales  % change
Region          (millions)   vs. YAgo  (millions)  vs. YAgo

California         $564        1.2%       468       -3.9%
Great Lakes        $704        4.7%       741       -0.5%
Mid-South          $627       10.8%       638        0.4%
Northeast          $862        3.1%       824       -5.2%
Plains             $324        9.8%       398        7.7%
South Central      $456        3.4%       470       -1.0%
Southeast          $601        4.6%       652       -3.4%
West               $541        4.5%       517       -2.0%

Total U.S.       $4,681        4.9%     4,709       -1.6%

For 52 weeks ended Jan. 27, 2002

Source: Information Resources Inc.
Top Ten Ice Cream Brands (Supermarkets Only)

                     Dollar Sales  % change  Pint Sales  % change
Vendor                (millions)   vs. YAgo  (millions)  vs. YAgo

Private Label            $992        4.4%      1,385      -4.6%
Breyers                  $520       $5.4%        487      -0.4%
Dreyers/Edy's Grand      $367        3.7%        334      -0.6%
Blue Bell                $229        2.6%        198       0.0%
Haagen Dazs              $190        3.3%       61.9      -0.6%
Ben & Jerry's            $160        5.0%       49.7       1.1%
Well's Blue Bunny        $113        2.5%        133      -2.5%
Healthy Choice          $97.6        8.5%       90.2       8.7%
Turkey Hill             $96.4       -0.5%        109     -11.6%
Dreyers Edy's           $94.4       23.6%       85.1      19.2%

Total Ice Cream        $4,208        4.0%      4,304      -2.1%

For 52 weeks ended Dec. 2, 2001

Source: Information Resources Inc.
Top Ten Frozen Novelty Brands (Supermarkets Only)

                      Dollar Sales  % change  Volume Sales  % change
Vendor                 (millions)   vs. YAgo   (millions)   vs. YAgo

Private Label            $337.0      10.8%       258.0        3.0%
Klondike                 $143.0      15.9%        75.3        7.1%
Nestle Drumstick         $105.0       7.1%        39.5        4.0%
Popsicle                  $91.5      -1.9%        52.8       -3.8%
Haagen Dazs               $52.4       0.4%        8.7        -0.9%
Well's Blue Bunny         $48.1       6.2%        29.0       -0.5%
Dole Fruit and Juice      $43.6      -4.8%        15.8       -8.3%
Silouette                 $42.7     408.6%        14.4      415.6%
Fudgesicle                $42.6      10.3%        19.0        7.8%
Blue Bell Novelties       $42.1       3.9%        27.7        2.6%

Total Novelties        $1,939.0       7.2%     1,017.0        2.8%

For 52 weeks ended Dec. 2, 2001

Source: Information Resources Inc.
Frozen Novelty Retail Dollar Share -- 2001

Total frozen novelty retail dollar sales: $2.1 billion (+7.1%)

Novelty Type                  % Dollar Share  % Change vs. 2000

Ice Cream Bars with stick         17.9%             2.2%
Sandwiches                        13.5%            19.8%
Frozen Ice                        12.5%            -2.7%
Ice Cream Cones                    9.8%            15.7%
Fruit/Juice                        9.5%             9.4%
Ice Cream Bars without stick       7.0%             6.5%
Fudge Bar                          5.9%             9.7%
Cups                               3.9%             6.2%
Push Tube                          3.0%            17.8%
Cream Bar                          2.4%            -1.3%
Cookie Sandwich                    1.7%            22.6%
Italian Ice                        1.6%            24.2%
Bite Size                          0.8%             3.4%
Sorbet                             0.6%           -19.4%
Frozen Yogurt                      0.2%           -17.7%
Other                              9.7%               --

Total                              100%               --

Source: Information Resources Inc., courtesy IDFA