Category experts make fourth quarter predictions

Drug Store News, August 18, 1997

How does this year's fourth quarter video lineup compare to last year? What are some of the promotions and sleepers that drug chains should look for, besides the season's splashier hits?

For answers to those questions, Drug Store News asked two top video distributors-Morton Grove, Ill.-based Baker & Taylor and La Vergne, Tenn.-based Ingram Entertainment-how they see fourth quarter video opportunities shaping up.

Although at press time not all fourth quarter sell-through releases had been announced by the studios, B&T's vice president of marketing, Carl Mann, said, "If the titles currently doing well at the box office--the Jurassic Park sequel `Lost World' (Universal) and `Men In Black' (Columbia Tristar)--are released to sell- through, then this year should shape up to be as strong as the 1996 year-end selling season."

On the other hand, according to Ingram's vice president of sales for grocery and drug, Bill Bryant, "The number of titles will be equal to last year but the strength of the titles seems to be a little softer" than last year's biggies, such as "Twister," "Independence Day" and "Mission Impossible." In animated titles, "Beauty and the Beast Enchanted Christmas" will be a large title--but probably not equal to last year's "Toy Story," noted Bryant.

Mann also thinks Disney's live-action family film "George of the Jungle," which opened in theaters in late July, also "has strong broad-based appeal" if it is released for sell-through in the fourth quarter.

Bryant also cited "Liar Liar:" "Jim Carrey is hot as hot can be on home video. We expect it to do extremely well." Another title rumored to be released before the end of the year is "Batman and Robin." The previous title sold between 5 million and 7 million units, so Bryant expects a good performance from this release.

He also anticipates strong sales of the direct-to-video title "Casper a Spirited Beginning."

He noted that retailers can capitalize on video by playing into a season whenever possible. "Casper a Spirited Beginning" releases in September, but is expected to be merchandised through Halloween. "The first Casper had a much longer sales window than a normal video title, probably for the same reason-the timing with Halloween," said Bryant.

In animated video, both Bryant and Mann cited Disney's "The Enchanted Christmas," which continues the tale of Beauty and the Beast in a direct-to-video product and, according to Mann, "is expected to do very well."

Mann also cited Hallmark's Crayola series, Crayola Kids Adventures and Crayola Presents Animated Tales, which are tied into an extensive media promotion and ad campaign for fourth quarter. On the product's sure-fire visibility he added: "The Crayola brand is certainly well established--frankly, it's recognized by anybody who's ever been a kid." Mann also noted that Hallmark plans extensive media support for its animated release, "Anabelle's Wish."

Activities for kids are another feature of this season's video offerings. Hallmark's Crayola series includes extras such as in-pack Crayolas and activity and coloring books. Mann noted that the new Barney eight-title display, available for fourth quarter sales, features on-pack puzzles of the video cover.

Fox is building up interest for its forthcoming animated theatrical release "Anastasia" with an "Anastasia Sing Along" for fourth quarter. Mann notes that sing-along videos are usually priced right for retailers such as drug chams.

Another children's title Bryant cited is the animated "Land Before Time V" from Universal: "Every year their sell-through at retail on this series is incredible. Each sequel has performed as well as the original, so we're expecting that one to continue the trend."

Other children's and family titles include Swan Princess 2, a late July theatrical release (distributed by Warner), Warner's "Pippie Longstocking" and "Free Willy 3." "All hold good potential for the sell-through market," said Mann.

Another title cited for fourth quarter potential is "Star Wars Trilogy" (Fox), which includes new footage from the films, and is also available in single titles. Bryant believes that retailers should not overlook this product. The trilogy is expected to outsell the singles, he noted. Although prepacks like this normally don't sell in drug chains, due to the consumer demographics "this is a great drug store item, even at a little higher price point" than usual. (Suggested retail is $49.98 and minimum advertised price is $29.95.)

A sleeper recently announced by Universal is the direct-to-video animated "Hercules and Xena." Observed Bryant, "It may do very well at retail," and explained that this title (which might be unnoticed by drug chains and is a family film) is projected by Universal to sell close to 4 million units nationally.

With all this variety, Bryant said, "We think it will be a great fourth quarter overall. Combining all studios, overall units might be down slightly from last year but it will be a very strong quarter for video." On giftability, Mann added: "I think video as a gift item has been accepted into the mainstream and it should be a great gift this holiday season under the tree or in a stocking."