Cough/cold finishing with a bang

Drug Store News, April 3, 1995 by Mike Troy

The 1995 record-setting cough/cold season will continue to build store traffic and boost sales as it is forecasted to extend well into April, and sales of allergy products look equally promising.

"The [cough/cold] category has picked up tremendously compared to a year ago," said Andrew Kress, vice president of the forecasting firm, Surveillance Data Inc. (SDI) "Cough/cold sales during the first quarter are going to be the highest in history."

Cough/cold sales are up 13.6 percent to $219 million for the four-week period ending Feb. 12, 1995, compared to the same time frame a year ago, according to Information Resources Inc. (IRI) figures. That is quite an accomplishment considering last year's sharp upward spike during January before sales took a nose dive in February and March.

This year, sales figures for March are expected to show even higher percentage gains vs. a year ago considering 43 of the 71 markets tracked by SDI were on alert" status at press time. A market earns "alert" status when SDI's tracking systems indicates significant outbreaks of colds and flu.

Demand has been steady

While last year demand peaked, then quickly retreated, this year manufacturers and retailers are benefiting from a steady demand for product. Since mid-January, cold and flu outbreaks have been escalating and have reached and maintained their highest level in eight years, according to SDI's Flu/Cold Respiratory Illness Activity Notification program. SDI correctly predicted a slow start to the season when Kress was interviewed by Drug Store News last November (See "Retailers plan for mild cough/cold season" in the Nov. 21 issue.)

The outlook for the rest of this year: "By the end of April you should start to see cough/cold sales trailing off and allergy will pick up," Kress said. "What we are forecasting right now is the allergy season should be fairly good in terms of product movement and it will be at least a moderately good season."

He cautioned that forecasting the allergy season is a less exact science because unpredictable weather patterns can lead to regional variability.